Population Decline Going To Push Automation Even Further

This might seem like an odd topic since the mainstream media likes to pound the threat of over population to humanity. The idea is that the growing number of people is going to make already scarce resources even scarcer. This is an absurd proposition because, all throughout history, we know technology actually increases our ability to provide the basic resources.

All of this might not even be a subject of debate. If a study out of the University of Washington is correct, we face a future of declining population. Therefore, we might see the peak population in the 2060s.


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At the core of this is the fact that global birthrates are dropping like a brick. The Western countries are leading this change along with the Middle East. Many of the countries in that later are not even operating at a replacement rate. In a couple decades, we are going to see this transition to the developed countries. Even a country like China is slated to see a massive drop in their population numbers.

What this means is that countries are going to face aging populations. Japan is the poster child for this situation since it has felt the effects for the last couple decades. This caused massive deflation while growth slowed.

Fortunately, Japan is now becoming one of the leading countries for robotics and automation. The country is experimenting with providing robots to care for the elderly. If successful, this is a trend that will spread throughout the developed world.

Long term fear of unemployment will be washed away. While some, including myself, see this as a threat over the next 10 years, 30-40 years down the road will see the exact opposition situation. The job market will likely have more jobs than people to fill them.

Depending upon how far technology advances, we might see a world where a lot of the basic necessities are provided by automation entities. As we delve further into the digital world, AI is going to take on a bigger role.

I would expect that we also see the nature of work changing over the next few decades. The idea of work being some type of Protestant ideal that should be esteemed is going to disappear. Studies done before COVID-19 revealed that 80% of people in the United States did not like their jobs. In other words, it was drudgery for these people.


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It appears that the West was very good at creating jobs for the sake of creating jobs. One thing COVID-19 is going to do is to clear out the excess. Most of these jobs that were basically fluff will be gone for good. That is why analysts are predicting that 25% of the jobs eliminated due to COVID-19 are going permanently.

With an aging popularity, productivity is going to have to come from automation. Robots are going to have to take on even more in the realm of manufacturing. We are also going to see a lot of slack picked up in the construction industry.

All indications are that we are setting up for a perfect storm of automation. With countries already facing employment issues due to an aging population, coupled with a push towards nationalism, the signals are that this will only get worse as time goes by. Companies are going to have to turn to the technology sector to try and make up the shortfall.

In the United States, for example, there is already a shortage of truck drivers. Autonomous vehicles is expected to solve this issue. Of course, once the problem is solved, there is no reason to stop there. Many workers feel that their jobs will be done away with when the technological boom hits full swing.

The decline in population in some countries is only going to feed into the use for automation.


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I had planned to draw pension at 57 and become a truck driver. I'm hoping Tesla Semis are more standard around then. I would not mind chaperoning the truck around the country for a couple of years as it drives around.

Something I think about is how low birthrates can result in one person receiving inheritances from parents and other relatives who did not have children or lost them. As population declines, you have so many assets being left in the hands of fewer and fewer people. It's a physical manifestation of monetary deflation.

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Portugal has also been experiencing an aging population for some time. I will not be surprised to see that it is one of the countries to accept Japan's robots.

I admire Japan a lot and it's amazing how advanced they are in these areas of robotics.

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This is somehow suprising because who would have thought that there'll be a possibility of population decline in the near future. Currently this isn't the case especially in some Africa countries. But then automation is something I feel that take time before it starts happening but well from all indications it's coming faster than expected

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Quite frankly, I never looked at this from your angle. But there's so much truth in your opinion. With the elderly having a higher count definitely, growth and productivity will decline. So, we see that both over-population and under-population is a problem.

How then can we attain an average population?

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