How Fast Is Technology Progressing?

This is something that should interest all of us.

We all come across the headlines how artificial intelligence is going to change things. That said, we are also in a major hype cycle. When you start seeing videos on YouTube or articles in finance sites talking about the "Top 5 AI Companies To Invest In", you know we are in a hype.

It was the same a couple years ago. At that time, we had the same thing concerning the "Metaverse". People were talking about this like it was around the corner.

Before that, if memory serves me, it was augmented and virtual reality. People were asserting that Snap, Inc was a play on the AR success.

All were for not. That does not mean that we are dealing with "dead" technologies. Instead, we have to be mindful that hype will always outpace the advancements. The former can occur at light speed.

In this article we will try to uncover how fast technology is progressing.

Source

Moore's Law

Probably the best known technological indicator in terms of pace is Moore's Law. This is no law as much as an observation. The key is that it held true for the past 60 years. Actually, when we look at computing, this has gone on longer than when Gordon Moore made his observation.

For over 100 years, with different types of "computing", we see a similar trend. With hardware, it tends to be rather consistent. Semiconductors, at least as we known them, might be ending their life cycle. This is not novel. A paradigm shift to a new technology is a logical, and likely, next step. What that will be can be debated by the experts but we will follow a similar path.

At some point, semiconductors will be the same as vacuum tubes.

While the companies and their engineers are working on that, other areas are gaining attention. At the core of technological advancement is computing. This is not something we are going to get away from.

If we are being limited by hardware, that means software is the next level. Here we see a great deal of work being done. Algorithms are receiving a great deal of attention, with development happening at a pace that exceeds Moore's Law. The problem with software is the impact is not as consistent as with hardware. Big breakthroughs can be met with lags.

One things helping to offset this is the multitude of areas being researched. Software stacks are being tinkered with. Data is being labelled and structured, providing more use for training models. And, of course, the amount of data we have keeps exploding.

All of this puts on a pace for radical advancement. That said, we have to keep it in proportion to expectations. Based upon the hype, it is surely to disappoint.

AGI

Many are now talking about the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). This might be just around the corner but is not likely. In fact, it is likely still decades into the future.

What is taking place right now is still basically more powerful computing with a growing body of data. We see models using more data points as with something like ChatGPT. Nevertheless, while these are impressive applications, they are still basically glorified search.

A useful tool, no doubt. But still a long way from AGI.

If we remove that from the table, what are we left with?

Here is where we still have impressive progress. There is a lot of advancement in creating specific use cases. In other words, we are still developing a lot of ANI (artificial narrow intelligence). This is not replicating a human in all matter. Instead, it gets very good at what it does.

An example of this is a stock trading program. These keep advancing and improving because they focus within a tight range. It is looking for signals when to buy and sell. This software cannot tell us what a dog is, nor does anyone care. There are other things that can do that.

What we have developing is a world where there are most ANIs being created, surrounding us with technology.

This should make those fearful of Skynet happy. Your doorbell is not going to partner with the algorithms in Bing to take over the world.

Baseline

One of the things to look at is the baseline from which we are operating.

Today, we are more advanced than we were a decade ago. Our communications systems are advancing. As mentioned, computing is getting more powerful. Mechanical activities can be replicated in ways that computers understand then.

This should not, however, be mistaken for "thinking". We are still dealing with a lot of if/then type of training scenarios. Again, this can be extremely powerful and will benefit us greatly.

We know there is a rate of technological progress. How this is calculated can vary and there are a number of people who have models online. The important point is that we have a baseline of where we are at today and we know we will be more advanced in 5 years. Speculation enter as to what this looks like and what areas are affected.

To me, the key is to look at the areas where there is impact. It isn't necessarily the technological pace as much as what it affects. For example, mapping software has undergone many transitions over the last couple decades. However, the significant impact can be seen in the improve drilling results for oil companies as a result of this technology.

The AI Boom

We are at a point where AI is the talk of everyone. There is a valid reason for this. We are dealing with stuff that is going to change society. That said, we have a few problems.

To start, artificial intelligence is a catchphrase. It is like the word technology. We could classify it as a heading. There are a lot of areas to AI, divided between software and hardware coupled with them working together. When a spreadsheet program adds up all the numbers in a column, that is AI. So is feature on your phone where you can speak in and it texts for you.

Yet, I do not believe this is what people are talking about on the media shows.

The reality is technology is progressing faster than it ever did before. The reason is because companies have great incentive to do so. Of course, much of what takes place is outside our view.

When a bot is monitoring the databases of a bank, looking for hacks, that is Ai at work. The question is how many of us know the security procedures for financial institutions?

I would surmise few of us.

The same is true for YouTube and Netflix recommendations. Each year, these are improving if for no other reason than enormous amount of feedback from the users. Nevertheless, this is not something we are going to see.

Be Careful Of Buzzwords

The media loves buzzwords. This is what gets clicks. However, we have to be careful of them because they can be misleading.

Technological progress is often like watching grass grow. The noticeable impact goes through stages. I observed there are 20 year cycles that have held since the mid 1800s. While the progress is likely steady, the impact upon society is not.

People tend only tend to notice when the advancement reaches the end user. This is why the 1980s and 90s were huge. We had the Internet, in-home gaming, cable television, mobile phones, and personal computers all emerge.

The last couple decades, running up to 2020, didn't see much on this end. There was Apple with the IPhone which was revolutionary. We might also put streaming into that category although the impact was much less. Outside of that, from the average person standpoint, advancements were incremental.

If history repeats itself, the next couple decades will see a massive shift in this area. People are going to notice a slew of changes. What they will be is still guesswork. However, there are a number of contenders.

To mention a few:

• evolving AI and robotics
• blockchain and digital assets
• bio-tech
• alternative energy advancements
• batteries
• spatial web
• genetics
• AR/VR/MR

We can already see how this is changing where we turn for information, news, and entertainment. The traditional entities are finding themselves under attack due to the shift towards different distribution channels. Improving software could radically alter this as more people have access to tools that can reduce costs, save time, and create better output.

ChatGPT Moments

There will be a lot of ChatGPT moments where the imagination of the masses are captured. Ultimately, this was an impressive development, one that suddenly was rivaled by many other companies jumping into the mix. At this point, a chat bot is pretty much a given as search engines incorporated them. We will see the continued expansion.

The point here is we are dealing with a step. It doesn't radically alter the world but it is bringing more money and interest into the space. The next breakthrough will have even greater impact (and likely be even more impressive). After that, things will settle down for a while before another wave hits.

We can focus this upon many areas. Even within cryptocurrency, we see the different crazes. There was ICO, followed by DeFi, then NFTs, and, eventually, DAOs. The net result of all this is not much so far.

Of course, we are still early. The hype left all those areas yet a solid foundation remains. ICOs might be gone due to the regulation but the rest has a bright future. The next wave of innovation will not be based upon mania but practical applications that solve real world problems.

Revolutions are usually evolutionary. This appears to be the case with technology. While there was the smartphone moment, the day when Apple introduced the product, there was no such thing with the Internet. Sure, there was the development of the World Wide Web but how many say that? In hindsight, a crucial step in what the Internet eventually became.

In the end, technology is progressing at a tremendous pace. The baseline that is established means the next 10 years will see a lot of ChatGPT moments. They will appear, have varying degrees of impact, and then feed into something else that gets developed.

That said, the true impact comes from the millions of improvements we will see on all areas. This will present opportunities for people to take advantage of. It could come from disruption of something old or from something that is novel.

Nothing is standing still. Each day the number of a things a machine can do better than a human keeps growing. It does not reverse course. Sometimes the specifics can get blurry but the overall trend stays in place.

In closing, most of the progress will go unnoticed by the masses. Hype is what tends to get attention where consistent technological progress is overlooked.

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