Hive And A Post Labor World
In this article we are going to explore something that is happening rather quickly, unbeknownst to most people.
What we are facing is a post-labor world. Here is a concept that the majority of people sweep under the rug, believing that we are simply going to keep creating more jobs.
Unfortunately, it appears that a post-labor world could be potentially closer than we think.
Before getting started, we have to define what that is.
A post-labor world is a time when the majority of the economy is not based upon human labor. Because of advancements in automation, the largest percentage of GDP is generated via machines.
Another point that we have to consider is the fact that this is the potential timeline based upon technology. There are other factors to consider such as regulation, governments, and the actual manufacturing/construction process. That said, this will serve as a way to look at the situation and see how quickly things are changing.
13M Percentage Increase
How fast is artificial intelligence moving? This is hard to say exactly but there are people are are trying to calculate it.
According to research done back in 2019, Stamford University concluded:
Post-2012, compute has been doubling every 3.4 months.
This means that, over 5 years, we will see a percent increase of over 13 million AI compute.
We acknowledge this is a rather dated study. However, they did look at the trend over a period of around 6 years. Even if we are dealing with something that is a bit slower, reducing the increase by an order of magnitude or two, we still can expect huge jumps.
Is it any wonder that things such as chat bots are starting to amaze?
Of course, we also have something similar happening in robotics. The advancements there are stellar, albeit at a much slower pace. Looking at the work Tesla is doing with Optimus is just one example of how rapidly things are changing.
Automation Is The Future
Automation is the future.
We saw this taking place over the last 40 years. If we look in a factory that produced automobiles, it employed 30K people running 3 shifts per day. Today, that factory might employ 1/3 the total people while having double the output.
Both manufacturing and agriculture have seen production increase over the last half century yet the number of people employed in those industries has declined.
This is what automation does.
We are about to see that put on steroids. The result will be the potential for a post-labor world within 5 years. Much of what is handled by humans today will be done by machines. This is simply the pace I estimate things are advancing.
Does that mean we have 5 years left of jobs? The answer is no.
Even if we could replace 1 billion people with 300 million robots, it will take a long time to produce that many. Achieving a milestone of 1 million robots in a year from a production facility will be a grand achievement. It also will not dent the labor force.
Another think to keep in mind is this will not be spread evenly. If we look at smartphone adoption, it did not hit the entire world the same. Some countries were far ahead of others.
This is why we are dealing with the potential. The technology could be there but other factors will not be.
That said, it is time to start thinking about this. It is safe to say that, in 10 years, these numbers, if accurate, will be dwarfed.
Hive As A Solution
We often say how Hive is changing lives.
This might become more evident as time goes by. If the advancement is automation is accelerating, people are going to have to earn in other ways. Naturally, many will turn to government for a solution. The problem is they will be light years behind the problem and end up doing too little. It is the track record for politicians.
The net result is most are going to be on their own. While the initial phases might be barely noticeable, acceleration means it eventually will not be missed. By that time, it is game over. The trend is already cemented in place.
In future articles we will cover artificial intelligence and DAOs. For now, we have to consider the many opportunities that are emerging on Hive for one to earn. Since we are dealing with different incentivization and value capture structures, this could be a way out for many people.
The advantage Hive has is the distribution model that it utilizes. This is still a rarity within the cryptocurrency realm. It is also why we see impacts in some developing nations already. Those with a low barrier can be affected by a dollar or two a day. Hive can offer this.
For those who present an utopian view of a post-labor world, we have to remember that, even if it does occur, there is a lot of pain as disruption occurs. The Luddites are the poster children for the anti-technology sentiment. Yet, we must point out they were right: things did not end well for them.
Web 3.0 is much more than just tokenization. It is disruptive and based upon many technological advancements. This cannot be stopped any more than social media or the Industrial Revolution could be. It will also redesign society.
The above stats likely will equate to knowledge workers. This is where the initial carnage will come from. Software is progressing at a phenomenal rate. While many profess it will be used to enhance the work people are doing, the likelihood is that, over time, companies will simply phase people out.
In fact, the majority of professions such as law and accounting could end up automated in 10-15 years. Then we look to fields such as education, architecture, and engineering. All of these will see massive changes.
Then we have the chase for autonomous vehicles. How many jobs are there globally tied to driving?
The point is that we are not as far away, from a technological standpoint, as many believe. Increases like this will keep happening. This is going to lead us to a post-labor economy which brings up a host of problems.
We will see a lot of discussion about it with a few solutions pursued. However, in the end, it will be insufficient.
Is Hive part of the solution? This could be. Over the next half decade, we need to scale both the capabilities along with the opportunities presented.
If this happens, we could be looking at something that has built in solutions that people will require.
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
It's a really good thing that we decided to adopt blockchain technology!
Excellent post and I can't wait until I have an Android to help me out!
Long before the android you will have a personal AI that you will train. It will likely be housed in some type of DAO that interacts with other DAOs.
Yes please I can totally use some artificial intelligence trading bots to run my decentralized finance investments....
LOL yeah I think we all could fall into that. I would love to see someone set stuff like that up for all of us to get into.
Well if we can dream it it can happen. Look we've already got a blockchain and decentralized finance so it's just a matter of time until we have even more cool things like this....
Without a doubt. We have the foundation in place. We need to build up from there.
Interesting thoughts here, I agree with your appraisal that many jobs that exist today, will not exist 10 years from now.
The jobs that are particularly vulnerable are in large scale processes where segments of processes can be broken down to machine performable recurrent tasks - like assembly, warehouse picking etc.
Construction jobs will be safe for longer - though at some point new construction may be standardized so that it is broadly machine performable.
I believed there will be increased artisanal markets for human made goods, and small scale agricultural products. I live in a semi-rural county in the Eastern United States - I've noticed that attendance has increased at local festivals, farmer markets, and small events with music. In some segments at least there is an increased desire for regionally produced entertainment and goods.
Here are some very interesting points indeed! I also think that the labour market will not have as many jobs in the near future as it does now... for both good and for worse. But what sort of scares me is the rise of AI. On the other hand, I perceive machine learning and automatisation as positive things. Best regards and plenty of success here on HIVE! 🙂
One of the factors in something like construction is the uneven terrain. It is much easier to bot a warehouse where the climate is controlled and the surroundings static for the most part.
We are seeing unskilled labor and knowledge workers under attack. Skilled labor has a bit of a cushion for now.
Everyone is so worried about this. The reality is that is a long time due.
We been expecting self driving trucks for 15 years. But is sad that the lack of competitiveness of the populating is trying to hold this back from happening.
The more we harvest digital skills the more the demand will grow for them.
True, very well said indeed! But not just self driving cars... some are expecting other self driving vehicles or devices. One day, perhaps we will be able to see them actually. All the best!
You already have them.
There are self driving tractors for example on farms.
The technology is there to a degree. We are only going to see it expand a great deal further over the next few years.
Thank you for the clarifications. I see your points very well. I am quite optimistic in technological regards with respect to the next couple of years but it is crucial that we do not become slaves to our technologies in the end. This is very important. All the best and thank you very much for your response!
We have become slaves to our devices. At some point humanity should shift from letting it consume us to having it enhance. As things are embedded more into society, I think we will move away from it.
Hmm, quite possibly, I see your point, but at least not all of the time, very much fortunately I should add. Technology is merely a tool and should not become an addiction. But sometimes it becomes so, unfortunately. I remain hopeful about your last sentence, hoping that we will drift away from it becoming a widespread addiction as soon as possible. All the best!
It is a tool but it become the focal point. I believe as it blends more into our surroundings, then it will become what you state. Look at electricity...that is only a focal point when it is not working. Outside of that, we dont notice it.
Same with wifi...we simply use it without noticing it.
Much of the developments we are seeing will do the same.
And Bluetooth while we are at it. My main concern is that people shouldn't always take what ChatGPT mentions for granted but rather do their own research and then act informed based on the newly information acquired. That's why man's intelligence should prevail over a tool and, consequently, man should not become a slave to its tools or devices. Hence why I am apprehensive and skeptical with respect to the rise of ChatGPT. It can be very useful if it were more developed and used for good, but it will never replace genuine human intelligence, not before my eyes at least. It will remain a tool, hopefully a more useful one. Best regards!
The value of the ChatGPT is that it is improved search. Still nothing creative that I can see.
It simply takes existing information and pulls it.
Yes, yes, so very well said, that's how I feel about it as well! It is simply a quantitative compilation software which does not necessarily improves one's knowledge but can potentially confuse the respective user trying to search more for a topic. It is definitely a very bad solution for personal or professional usage in these regards, at least before my eyes.
One former university colleague of mine showed it to me when it came out a year ago or so I think. I used it a bit along with him out of curiosity but was tremendously disappointed afterwards and decided to never use it again. It did not bring about sufficient quality information on the topics I requested it to give me insight into (and I know those very well). Plus some copied information from Wikipedia (which I also improve as much as I can as an established user with several years of constant edits by now). Best regards!
Improvements will accelerate now that every major tech company is engaged in it. We will find the prompts much better.
That is how tech goes.
Yes, indeed, I agree, this is howe technology moves forward with the vast majority of devices, hardware, and software. We will see how it will get improved in the near future. All the best!
Certainly true.
That said, I think we are starting to see acceleration in many areas. AI is a compounding mechanism and the societal impact is only now being seen.
We have no idea how quickly things will emerge. But I will say, with things like self driving tech, it will not be here one day, and then here the next.
Very interesting post. As we are slowly but steadily evolving towards this path, I presume that's why machine learning became so important and prevalent as a study choice. It goes without saying actually. Thank you very much for your post and all the best! Keep up the good work here on HIVE!
There are many facets to machine learning, most of what are forging ahead.
The 2020s are going to see a major societal shift from how we operated at the start of this decade.
Indeed, so do I think as well! There is room for a lot of potential in the near future and, more specifically, in the next couple of years. It's going to be an exciting time to be around to witness technological advancement. Thank you very much for your response and all the best!
I think what you touch upon is important. Things are only going to accelerate. This is where the compounding impact enters.
We already see how ChatGPT is growing in use since the technology is being integrated into many of our commonly used platforms.
Yes, I see your point, but the quality of ChaptGPT in terms of the subjects that I used it for is mediocre, to say the least. I tried to use it and wasn't quite impressed. That's my personal opinion, of course, solely based on my personal experience as a timely user with it. On the other hand, I do not know why so many people hold it so high... it has potential, but AI in general is and will not be smarter than man is, primarily because of the fact that it was created by man and not the other way around. These are my sincere thoughts. Best regards!
That is today.
When mobile phones first came out, the technology, in hindsight, sucked. But over time it improved.
I would imagine with all the companies involved, we are going to see these models improve greatly.
Yes, indeed, in fact it's very realistic and is happening as we communicate. Mobile phones got better and better until they got to be labeled 'smart'. And, indeed, they are far smarter now than they used to be when they came out (though, as a joke here, their strength and durability is debatable sometimes when compared to the classic Nokia 'brick' model, so to put it, heh).
Internet was not very well seen when it came out and look where we are now, twenty something years ahead of its initial invention (if we are to measure the internet only as early back as the 1990s, when, in fact, it is older than that by a margin of several decades).
I am very hopeful and optimistic for the future of technology but I am also equally apprehensive for it can be use for both good and bad. When it is used for evil reasons, it can be manipulative. AI can also play a nasty role while we are at it. That's why we need more and more rightful regulations on it on behalf of the government, but, at the same time, we need governments which we can trust in the first place. The more we trust them, the more transparent their policies are, the better the regulations can be in terms of AI, for example. That's how I think at least. Regards!
If human labour becomes superfluous, it would be logical that the generation of income should also become superfluous. But as long as work and income are linked, just like taxes, human income recipients are needed. The many professions that are replaced by automation or AI will nevertheless need food. But how are the many unemployed supposed to pay taxes if they live off the state or a so-called granted basic income?
The question then arises whether an income is necessary at all. One might think that if so many goods, commodities and foodstuffs are largely produced by machines, then earning an income is somehow pointless. Like artificially employing a bagger next to a cashier to fill people's bags with their goods. The subsequent question everyone asks is: if machines do most of the work, who pays to have them made and maintained? One could casually answer: No one. Since it is clear that payment is unnecessary. But because no government/company in the world is willing to simply take its raw materials from the earth or reuse them without compensation. So the question of compensation arises, doesn't it?
Because money is the means of compensation par excellence, the idea of taking something other than money to compensate is difficult. But what could that be? It seems (to me), after all, the only logical answer to this scenario.
Because to keep people alive, and yet progressively continue the use of machines/robotics/AI, involves trading raw materials that are not always available in one's own country. If you only transport back and forth what is needed locally, you'd have peoples lives covered.
If energy supply, roads, buildings, supermarkets and everything that people need to live is to be maintained, but this is not achieved by people for people through their labor, is it not the case that all borders would have to be dissolved and all nations would have to agree that they would henceforth do the opposite of what they are currently doing? To renounce war, for example. To renounce the collection and distribution of taxes. In other words, to abolish money as a means of payment.
Since this is unthinkable and probably not feasible (what do I know), I think it is more likely that artificial labour and income and taxation will be maintained or even intensified. Working for the big ones (state and corporations) will probably increase in the foreseeable future. Becoming a human resource in its scary sense (which I detest).
In twenty or thirty years, the baby boomers will be dead and population growth will come to an abrupt end. It is foreseeable that when people fall below a certain birth rate, self-sustainability - based on tax and social security fees - will no longer be granted. So that the young people of today, when they themselves are old, do not depend on the income and tax and social contributions of the following generations (since this calculation does not work out anyway), other means are needed for their survival. It would probably make sense that machines/robotics/AI use have to be much cheaper than they are today. Tax machines? LOL
Maybe parallel worlds will come into being. Peoples living off the grids or forming small communities next to the big/mega cities. I really don't know. Maybe becoming married and having many children will become fashionable again and taking vows between males and females seriously again.
I already have knots in my brain when I think about this stuff too long.
I don't believe in post labor future. I think people will come up with some crazy (or ingenious, it depends) jobs as they always do. After all, humans want to work, whatever that might be, they cannot do nothing.
I disagree. Humans want to be active, however you define that, in a certain way, but the idea they want to work is not something I agree with.
As for the post labor society, it is not close. The potentiality is there but the reality is much further along.
To start with what you wrong, keep in mind that money is designed to facilitate trade. That is the purpose it ideally servers. So the idea of a world without money is not going to happen.
And if labor is no longer human but machine, who is to say there is not compensation for it? Why wouldnt there be? Isnt that what cryptocurrency and blockchain can provide?
The difference is a lot of this will not be structured as a corporation but with DAO. That is likely to start expanding in utility as people experiment.
By the term "work", I really meant that people want to do something. Precisely because they cannot do nothing. They want to see meaning in what they are working on. If I said that people want to have "jobs", I agree with you. I am making a distinction here.
As I said before, I also do not see the scenario of a world without money. However, if work done primarily by humans is done by machines in the future, and yet nations will not forgo taxes and social security payments to distribute them, where will these revenues come from? From what forms of activity will people pay such levies, if not through a central national currency? In this context, what is better about cryptocurrency if it were also used for the same purpose? After all, you can't expect road construction, energy supply, supermarkets to be paid for in different crypto tokens whose stability changes in a short time, making planning difficult if not impossible?
If Berlin accepted the X token but not the Y token, Berlin would not be able to do business with Hamburg unless they accepted the same currency. The machines that run a power plant in Munich cost money and the operators want to see this money when they make financial investments to supply the region with energy, for example.
Even if cryptocurrency replaced fiat, don't you think it would also be centralised? If oil is extracted from the ground to run petrol stations or electricity is generated for electric vehicles, in what way does who compensate for the costs incurred?
It seems to me that cryptocurrency trading tends to be limited to less essential services and professions, but where it comes to food and energy, travel and construction, the sovereignty of decision-making lies either with the state or with the big corporations that call the shots.
I have no idea what DAO is and what you mean by that. Please, explain.
DAO = Decentralized Autonomous Organization
It is a crucial component to this entire discussion.
what makes it crucial? How does it refer to the questions I asked?
It alters the entire focus of the conversation.
You propose a centralized world which I disagree with. The future is moving in the other direction.
The challenge is that is one thing corporation and physical governments are going to be the structures of the future, then what happens if there is something completely different.
Another issue is that when you deal with networks, it again takes the conversation to another level. What happens when most people are finding autonomous agents that are housed in DAOs which are interconnected as being the basis for most of their activity.
But if you have no idea what the DAO is, then I can see why your point of view.
If we look at the last 40 years and see how the world changed due to the semiconductor, we can start the process of forecasting what the next few decades will look like.
This is where AI and robotics seem to be at point of massive acceleration. It was always happening but not at a noticeable level.
No, I did not propose it, and in fact, I detest it. I am over fifty and I observed what is also called "more centralization" instead of less. Our Currency, the Deutsch Mark was converted into the Euro, for example. On top of national governance we got the European Parlament. Small businesses vanish in favor of big businesses, one can go on and on with those kinds of examples. I wouldn't know how to counteract these developments, though I thought a lot about it.
DAO is a concept which still has to prove what you ascribe to it. We will see where it goes.
Automation is actually and the future. Informative post.
One thing does intrigue me, in this scenario where most of the work force is phased out of a job by artificial intelligence or robots, therefore probably without any source of permanent income, just who is going to buy the products produced by these AI or robots?
Wow! Post-labor world! First time reading this here on LeoFinance and Hive. I think the "labor" word in the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) should be deleted. I also wonder if there is still a need for labor unions to exist in such an automated future. I imagine the defenders of the labor theory of value will hate capitalism all the more for the rise of robots and AIs. I love to see such a post-labor world and Hive playing a significant role in such a future.
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