What Will You Do When?
For the first time in a long time, I got to have a face to face meeting with a client for my business. This was the first since Covid was forced on us, almost four years ago. Crazy. And for this particular client, while we have been having remote sessions, this was the first time we actually met in person - again, quite strange. It was really nice.
I even got a hug,
The conversation was interesting too! As we talked about having children, business conditions, impacts of AI and the widening skills and experience gap between groups. For example, it is hard to predict exactly what kinds of impacts AI are going to have on employment generally, because it is going to depend on the groups. For instance, a recent report estimates that around 350,000 retail jobs will be lost in Australia to AI over the next three years, which is 25% of the industry. However, only about 80,000 jobs will be created to handle the changeover.
But, this never tells the full story either, because it is not a one to one shift. If there were 100 jobs lost in the retail sector, even if there were 100 jobs created in the tech sector, it doesn't mean the people who lost their jobs in retail can retrain for the new tech jobs created. If they could, they probably wouldn't be in retail.
Yes, some might be able to make the shift, but how many are able to reasonably transition from retail to a high-end knowledge worker position? With knowledge work automation becoming far more common, they have to be able to add value above base-level administration at the very least, but they will also be competing with people who have already been doing those base-level jobs and need to move up due to leaving their specialized positions.
Retraining is untenable for most.
However, there is also a growing gap in the education areas also, where there are still people who think that getting good grades leads to a good job. They don't. What the grades actually say to an employer is "this person is able to learn and retain some information" - that is about it. Like my client was saying, the vast majority of his knowledge skillset was built through his employment experience, not through school, and this is going to speak to a larger issue for the young and the newly unemployed.
Because they are technology users, not technology creators.
As I have said earlier, people keep talking about the young as "digital natives" as if that means that they are technical, but that isn't the case at all. For the most part, they are digital users, but don't understand what goes into the development of what they are using. They are akin to someone who can drive a car, not a mechanic. Their predecessors however grew up exploring the tech, which is why they were able to innovate it. For them, nothing came out of the box, they had to learn how it worked and then creatively manipulate it for alternate purposes. For instance, I had friends that were soldering motherboard components together and writing code so they could have a dual Pentium processor when we were fifteen or sixteen. How many people today would dare open up their phone or Playstation and fiddle around?
For the most part, the younger tech users are only comfortable at the interface level, not the development level. This means that their skillset is relatively easy to come by in the marketplace, and therefore, does not command a high salary. The well-paid positions will be those that are specialized in narrow areas that can't be automated, which leaves a large amount of people scrambling for something else to do to pay the bills.
What does that look like?
For a few, becoming content creators will be possible, but when there are hundreds of millions globally, who can compete? And then, what happens to advertising revenues when consumers are no longer able to pay?
It will consolidate.
Even though we focus on wealth, there are "gaps" forming in so many areas now, with education, health and social skill gaps. There are also widening creativity gaps, emotional gaps and resilience gaps too. The profile of the average human is changing rapidly and we are on average becoming less capable than a machine to deal with the complexities of our daily needs.
A lot of parents think that what their children will need in the future is able to be obtained through being a good screen user. But ultimately, if there will be something to do, it will come down to their ability to learn new process, think critically, and practically innovate creatively. The vast majority of the young haven't developed these abilities, and have instead relied on the tools to fake skill. The easier the tools get, the lower their ability becomes, and the less valuable it is in the marketplace.
And, just to close this off a little - it doesn't matter whether some people are highly skilled and will be employed, because they ill have to live in this society too. Parents talk about their kids present and future happiness, but a big part of our well being is outside of our direct control. Yes, I want my daughter to be able to have work available she finds meaningful, but I also want her to be able to walk down the street without the constant and present threat of violence and crime. This means that the general health of society factors into the wellbeing of individuals, and if we don't improve the outcomes for the majority, everyone will suffer.
Handouts don't work.
Some people seem to put their faith in a Universal Basic Income system, but unless it is attached to work performance, it is going to fail also. Spend some time in a community filled with long-term unemployed people taking social security, and you will see a glimpse into a workless future.
I think we want more for our community than that.
Because we want more for ourselves than that.
Taraz
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It is really interesting with just few more years on and how AI would create revolution and change the whole dynamics going on our society and job fields.
Shedded jobs would be a big loss for sure, but low to middle skilled population would suffer much for the transition, thats not a good sign, because practically speaking - you cant just train and enable them with newer trendy skills to cover up job employment so fast.
Things are serious and I dont think first and the third world would be in same shape to cover such changes, though it is not possible.
A lot of the physical jobs will remain for some time, but the transfer, consolidation and summarizing of information jobs will likely be the first to go. A lot of that is already being automated, with better solutions being developed all of the time. In retail, there are a lot of logistics positions that might not survive for long, as well as a lot of even the customer facing roles disappearing. Here in Finland, most of the registers are left empty, as people are use the self-checkouts.
Hmm, that reflects reality, but the technological turnover seems amazing to me, how quickly things change and social lives also with it.
Very well narrated 👏
It is the social side that I am most interested in, as when we aren't connected to each other, it ends up pretty bad.
Sounds like a great client. People that you can connect to and have great discussions with and the best. I have a few clients and students like that and they are a joy to meet with because of it.
I like what you write about the importance of keeping society as a whole healthy. I feel like too many wealthy people have the attitude that society can be damned as long as their kid is taken care of, but they overlook or ignore the fact that if society crumbles, that is bad for all of us including them.
Yeah, I am lucky. Professionals, but in a range of ages and across industries and positions. It is almost like having a decentralized network ;)
Remember going to those parties with 50 kids at them? What happens at them now?
Well, I would tell at least 20 years younger version of me that not good grades, but good or bad experiences lead to a good job.
I would do the same. Talking with a friend a couple nights ago, we were also talking about this. The people who tend to do the best, are those who have experienced some of the worst.
Totally agree on the digital users view, some good stuff you have said here
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Thanks mate!
Most things can already be done by machines and automation. Many people afraid that the machines can take their jobs, but this can actually be a good thing. A workless future. A basic income for everyone without having to work. Theoretically this is possible.
Yes. I see it as a dystopia. It will not be like Star Trek.
I think identifying what industry/work will be affected next is the biggest problem for the youth. As you've said, a lot of jobs are being replaced by AI. So it's possible that those still studying in college already had their future destroyed by this. It is possible that education jobs like teaching could be next. Bank tellers are also at risk. IT operations that monitor systems can easily be replaced. The advancement in AI could get faster, and these changes can come in a blink of an eye.
Personally, off the top of my head, I think jobs that require a human touch will still be safe for a while. Jobs like nurses, physical therapists, high end chefs are just a few. I know you don't like handouts and Universal Basic Income, but once a lot of these jobs start getting automated, and more people become jobless, what happens next? As you said retraining is not for everyone, and all those who lost their jobs can't all fit in the remaining jobs available.
It might seem funny and impossible back then, but it is looking like our future will become something like the one in the Disney movie Wall-E.
For sure. There are so many areas at risk. Marketing people also.
Many underestimate how fast this change can happen. If anything, in some areas they seem to be holding it back a bit.
Yep. Plumbers, electricians, masseuse...
It is likely going to be needed, but it creates a more divided society - those who can add value (minority) and those who have to be taken care of. What does that world look like?
Well, we are nearing the right fat percentage! :D
When it was that time the craziest thing I saw was people buying toilet paper like there was no tomorrow.
Ironically they weren't buying the crown beers 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Come on it is inevitable that AI will take jobs away from people with the world becoming more and more dependent on technology.
It's like thano says I AM INEVITABLE.
The funniest was they were doing it in Finland also, even though there are tissue paper factories here. Global meme.
It is inevitable.
When idiocy is squared
What was he going to do with the paper clogging his lungs 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yes, it's like we watched the mobile go from gray screen to the new touch screen. We have seen how this scifi journey to the new world is going on. While kids born after the 2000 are just exposed to all of this and for them it is norm but not for us. We watch it with curiousity like we explore jurassic park.
The first modern LCD "screen" I ever saw was in the mid 80s - it was embedded into a watch and could view TV channels. It was green only of course, but amazing. It was on the wrist of one of the developers who was part of creating the tech. Took a while to make it to the consumers - but it made it.
I am at my mind's end with my current 6-month hiatus from paid employment. Thank goodness I still have my chief editor and writer role for the EDM media company I work for -- at least it gives me some daily purpose and structure while also providing me opportunities for free guest list tickets. It is really my only saving grace at this point because I'm basically out of funds for recreational activities unless I get them comped. Sadly, my long-form editorial industry is slowly crumbling away as our target audience is much more interested in 7-second videos than 5-paragraph articles.
I have a feeling that there might be some kind of renaissance period for longer form, specialized content, because not anyone can create it well.
I'll be hanging on tight waiting for that renaissance to come. Hopefully, my writing is good enough to make it to the promised land!
I'm actually scared about the jobs that people will lose in the nearest future
How do we now survive? How do we make ends meet? How do we afford the things we want to buy
It is really making me scared
The connection drawn between individual and societal well-being is crucial. It's not just about personal success but also about living in a society where everyone feels secure and has access to meaningful opportunities
“Either you run or you climb”, is a saying often used in my homeland. We must constantly update ourselves if we want to be at the forefront, we cannot always be on the defensive. The evolution of the human being has brought changes in each generation, our parents criticised modernity; today we criticise modernity and in the end we end up adapting to it. In the future, the new generations over the age of 40 will judge those times.
In relation to school, formal education is simply a “mouth-opener”. Education should be an apprenticeship that forms students as self-reliant and self-taught beings. The state should encourage companies and job providers to provide quotas to admit these young people and provide them with experiences, those skills that are acquired through practice. Let us remember the motto “practice makes perfect”.
I think when it comes to AI, our intuition based on past experience doesn't hold close to true. We don't have experience with this level of replacement. And yes, we will adapt, in the same way that some areas of society have adapted to have neighborhoods filled with drugs and violence. Adaption doesn't mean better.
They do - lower taxes. Companies pay less tax because they were hiring people who paid more tax. However, they aren't hiring as many now and in the future, even less, and are paying the least amount of tax they ever have.
It is most important that when we meet officially with someone not only to inquire about the business organization but to discuss all aspects and discuss them openly. The way AI technology is impacting it seems like most people will lose their jobs and suffer financially.
Technology is changing things quite fast and I do wonder what will happen in a workless future. I guess that would probably mean UBI or some other form of that. I think just keeping up technology and making the most out of what is the newest thing will help people in the future. After all, there are only so many people who can adapt to the newest things and when things take off, they will as well. People are in short supply of the people who know exactly what is up and can predict some things to an extent.
What is the point of a UBI if there are no jobs - what is the point of our lives? Get handed out some amount of money to go and spend on food to survive? What life is that?
There is something to be said about being self made and independent. When we are interdependent as a society, we become weak individually and more fragile as a people. Universal Basic Income is a fast track means through socialism to propel that fragility. Real men and women do not rely on the system to carry them. They rely on no one and even give back to others. They are healthy.
I feel the same. People will buy into the idea out of convenience, without looking at how it is truly going to affect them.
Wow, I would have thought you had been back to normal long before that. I finally had a teacher come to me the other day with concerns about AI. I shared some resources and she seemed to be okay with it.
I have been training a bit, but not as much as before. Has been a financial hit of epic proportions personally.
I think you are going to get more questions - keep those resources handy and up to date.
Yeah, you are probably right!
The future remains unknown with AI becoming so popular and preferable but then what happens to us? Meanwhile, you had a great client and the social circle bubbling beyond imagination
They can instead fall off the edge of the world like the dinosaurs...
Towards the center of the Disk, though, there are fewer and fewer people left who would do the basic jobs or learn to do civilization's pillar jobs such as hardware maintenance/creation. Specialists who can perform those trickle towards the rim where they get paid more. So the Center itself might fall off the Edge, first.
That's what high grades should be about. Humans are naturally good at adapting. Then, civilizationally bereft of that through gradual funneling away from self-reliance.
Yup, because wealth is not the money but the quality goods and services that money can buy and to have those, we need goods and service creators. A lot of those.
If a fresh and well ripe tomato from the garden is valuable, why is it so cheap? Because its good-looking but empty-on-the-inside competitor tomatoes are not only more profitable due to scale of low quality mas produced stuff, but even subsidized. Public funds draining by the powerful few twists the market a great deal.
Superficial demand for superficial skills.