Start Doing What You Can't Do?
I don't put a lot of stock in what the World Economic Forum has to say on pretty much anything, but I came across an article that stated that while 69 million new jobs would be created in the next five years, 83 million jobs would disappear, setting up a 14-million job negative. Most of these will be lost to the increase in automation and technology, but I think that their estimations are low-ball, and more will be lost.
However, one of the things that people keep saying is that even though technology like AI will destroy jobs, it will also create jobs. This is true, however what they never seem to acknowledge is whether they themselves have the ability to do the jobs that are getting created. This came up in a comment the other day where someone said that AI will mean there will be more jobs for coding AI, which is great, but when asked, they don't have the skills to do it themselves and actually cited using AI to code AI - which still doesn't give them a job.
The WEF (who are often wrong about many things) put out this list of the expected fastest growing and declining jobs:
If we look at it from a potential pool of workforce perspective, how many people are suitably equipped to do the jobs on the left in comparison to the jobs on the right? Sure, some people can be retrained, but very few people who are Bank Tellers and Related Clerks, are going to be able to make the shift over to AI and Machine Learning Specialists. I work in IT now and I know there is no hope for me to do that, because I am just not smart enough, or at least, smart enough in the areas I would need to be smart in to be able to add value enough that someone would pay me to do the work, over someone who is smart enough in the right areas.
A lot of people also cite the conditions of technological change in the past where work changed needs changed and ew pivoted, But again, they fail to recognize that the world in which we live is fundamentally different to when we went from farming into an industrialized world, or from manual industry into production lines.
The difference is speed.
You know there are still companies around the world who use paper for their office documentation and contracts? This is 2023. Times move fast, but not everywhere. However, they moved mush slower in the past and the industrialization of industry and even the automation of processes took a long time to spread. But, the spread is getting ever faster, facilitated by global communications, globalized conglomerate industries, and globalized investment and banking - as well as governments that tend to "follow suit" on may topics of industry.
That is a driverless buss cruising around last week, near where I work. There isn't even a person sitting in there, because in Finland, there was nothing put into the law that there "has to be a driver" in a vehicle. One of the few countries in the world where they can test completely driverless on normal roads. It is designed to do the "first and last mile", essentially shuttling people to transport hubs like tramways and as far as I have heard, it seems to be working okay.
That is tens of millions of jobs potentially gone from around the globe once ubiquitous, but the kinds of people who were doing these jobs earlier, aren't likely going to hit the books and become Fintech Engineers.
The problem is that most likely, the new jobs that are created are going to be in industries and fields that aren't able to be done by the people who lost their jobs. And, even the ones that are able to be done by them, there will be very high competition so they will be able to pick and choose who they put in the positions, and it will again unlikely be the bottom 40% of the workforce.
This means that through technological advancement, we are setting ourselves up for an even more quickly increasing wealth gap, and there will be little incentive for the top end, to do much of anything for the bottom, because they can't add value. Even as consumers, at some point, they aren't earning enough to make their attention valuable enough to attract, making them "just an expense" on the system.
If consumers have no money to spend, they can't consume by spending, only through handouts. Which is why people have been talking about some kind of universal basic income system, which means that people will be able to keep consuming, indebted to others. It becomes a form of slavery and who knows what hoops will need to be jumped through in order to get access.
The future is exciting, because we don't really know what advances are going to be made and what is actually going to happen, but I am skeptical that it is going to be good for the majority at this point, because thousands of years of history have taught us, it rarely is. The thing that has protected most of us is our ability to add some value into the system, making us needed, but once our tasks are automated, why keep us around?
Then there are the people who believe they are going to become creators on web 3.0 platforms, yet they again don't seem to acknowledge that the thing that makes a creator worthy, is their experience and personal voice - not their ability to use AI. And then, in a world where there are many people competing for attention, how are the majority of people going to stand out?
The last couple days, these things have been weighing on my thoughts a little, as I realize that I am not suited for an automated world. For me to compete in the workplace, whether as an employee or business owner, I have to be able to bring value at the personal level and with each layoff, the competition is increasing. But if I can't compete, I am not sure what I will do.
Do you know?
I have twenty plus years left until retirement, but I don't think my skill depth is going to last that long in the changing society, so I will have to find other ways to make it through. I am not the only one in this position however, the majority of us are and unless already close to retirement, I think that we will all be professionally affected. Some will get more opportunity opened up to them, the majority will be shut out. Yet after half a life of learning, no one wants to believe that much what they have learned, will soon be irrelevant - because no one is needed to do it at all.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Yes!
We know that technologies like AI will help some people to get jobs but it is pointless. What is the essence of creating more jobs for people when you know that you will deprive a lot of them of their jobs?
It does not sound well...
I also have 20 years before retirement. No work experience. I don't want to think about it. Better put like buddy, let these coins be my pension :)
Coin collector is my likely job title in the future too :)
))
Me to lol
Which coins?
HIVE
Some kids out there are going to grow up to become Resource Credit Rentiers.
Yep. What will they gave to do to pay their rent?
Living in one of the big cities here in Mindanao, Philippines, I have always been an employee. Making ends meet with the salary that I receive. But, several companies have and will be laying off employees. My company already had several layoffs, lucky as I was not one of them. But this has been a wake-up call to me. Knowing that my work can be automated anytime soon and I won't be needed. Now I'm trying to learn to grow my own food, hoping that this would at least feed us when the time comes. I'm still not good at it and have had several failed attempts, but I'm learning. By the time my job is automated, I hope I would be able to make growing vegetables a business that can support us.
Good luck with that! It is a hard road perhaps, but I reckon it is one that will bring reward in time too, especially if it offsets an income, so you can keep working, save money on food and perhaps even sell some extra for awhile.
Amazing post.
From my own opinion
people(workers) outside the tech industries don't seems to see any opportunity outside their job of view. All they do is go to work and earn penny.
Little secret i have learnt and would love to share is -
"You must be up-to-date".
As humans, you must be updated with the happenings. You must be well inform.
Source
Information is power, so you must get that information to acquire power.
Most people don't have the mental ability to be good enough at the coming job openings. It is like saying that from now on, everyone is going to have to earn by competing playing basketball. Almost everyone can compete, how many can be competitive?
So I guess we go back to farming and grow what we need to eat, fix/make what else we need to survive and leave the automated world behind?
That obviously isn't going to work at any sort of scale. Currently, the entire economy is set up to make profit from producers. Perhaps what is needed is a severe paradigm shift in the expectations of humanity and what is required to be part of society. Remember that Star Trek had no money... it was a communist system! :D
It was!
I also wonder what affect climate change will have on all this as well... I've seen predictions of a billion climate refugees over the next 2 decades as extreme weather events like floods and drought force people to move. Maybe everyone's job will be rebuilding out of flood plains and where fresh water sources are available?
Possibly. There is a lot of disruption coming in terms of the environment and this might save us economically. Though we will be screwed as a species! :D
I have no faith in the WEF to accurately forecast anything. Their economic models are fundamentally restricted by their command economy worldview and status quo bias. Luddite paranoia about technology has resulted in centuries of fearmongering. Sure, advancement leads to change, and chaos can result, but systemic unemployment is not the result. Entrepreneurs and innovators will have unimaginable opportunities as tech improves and labor is freed up.
Yes, they will, but in general, they will require less workers to do the work. The profits increase, but the distribution retracts, which is what has been happening for a long time, concentrating wealth in the top decision makers.
I have little faith in people using technology for the betterment of humanity.
If profits increase, we should expect competition to increase as well, resulting in a trend back to equilibrium. Only political protection creates the sustained corporate cartels we see around us. Tech is just the scapegoat.
Meanwhile, consider how much computers have improved our ability to create and communicate over the past three decades. That is the kind of unpredictable change the market provides even under the impedance of governments and corporations.
[/my2¢]
Do you see political protection reducing in the next decade or so?
I see that the maximization and monopolization of resources and wealth will continue until there is a complete paradigm shift in society.
Yes they have, yet the distribution of wealth is concentrating like never before. There is a difference between access to the tools and the ability to monetize them.
And yet here we are on a blockchain helping build a competing financial system while undermining regulations infringing on free speech nonetheless.
Yes, here we are. We just need to reach that critical mass point where it can actually compete and replace once the traditional economic practices collapse. I am very aware of the possibility, but the disruption is immense and it is going to be rejected by many, before they come around that it is actually in their best interest.
22 years to pension age too, hope to make it out earlier.
Earlier the better. Then live in a walled off community with armed guards... sounds awesome.
The problem is, I did a trial for 6 months, and I was not prepared. The most essential plan is not the plan to retire early. Is what you do after achieving financial independence that is important. And it seems that you cannot wing it. You need to plan it.
Some people think that because plans can change so much, it isn't worth planning at all. Some people are screwed.
agree to it
Twenty plus?! I would have pegged you as older than that. I think we are still a ways away from AI being able to do as many jobs as we think. There will come a point where AI starts creating its own solutions and devices to accomplish tasks. That's when I think we will start to become more obsolete.
I am an old soul (read, boring)
It doesn't have to do all of the job to have an effect, just part of it. For every 100 data entry people, if AI can do 20% of the job, 20 people lose their work. That happens in all industries pretty much.
I still think we are a bit off from that. It still just feels very people driven at this point. I know that will change eventually, and probably quicker than I realize.
I think over Assumption are based only on the information and knowledge we currently have but we have to remember one thing there will be a new ways to create jobs and starts business in the future, We don't even know about coming changes and advancements
We don't know, but we can make educated guesses.
J will probably be fine and I unexpectedly will be too as long as people want to keep doing gymnastics 🤣
No wonder there’s depop conspiracy theories flying around, if stuff were to go that way the peasants would revolt and being guillotined would be somewhat inconvenient for people with the delusion that they deserve obscenely large amounts of everything 🤣
At least. people will want to watch gymnastics, as it is entertaining! That is a bonus these days.
Bring back the guillotine.
I'm violently opposed to the death penalty as I've said quite a few times in the server XD
Gymnastics is pretty cool to watch especially at the higher levels :) though coaching it looks just as scary as doing it XD
"When I retire, I will have a little lake house." 😉
:D
I guess there's still going to be that "world's oldest profession" and with the ever expanding alphabet things could wind up getting real interesting. lol.
That is what OnlyFans is, isn't it? It is the digital version and people are encouraged to get into porn in the name of empowerment!
lol
I have literally seen people doing youtube videos, instagram and stuff. And literally couples are busy doing content to extract money out of their new wedly experience. So the situation is worst considering just job income is not going to sustain for many families. If youtube and online income drops then a lot of people would struggle post AI takeover. Learning to code, socializing online and doing videos is not a skill but a necessity in near future. Introverts would suffer even more.
Most people don't have the mental capacity for the kinds of jobs that will be created by AI, so that is impossible for the majority of people. Even now, learning to code is unlikely to create a job in 20 years, because the AI will be coding better than the majority of people who learned to code. But, some will excel, the tiny minority.
You say it right. And I think that all the people should keep updated about evolving jobs nd working places. I guess that with the actual knowledge, nobody is going to last 20 years. An exception may be about successful surgeons, that may not need to adapt their surgery style to new technologies (as they are already successful) but still, they will suffer competition and technology can usually bring better results.
So, I guess, that your point is a healthy acknowledgement of where you are, where you are going to be and where you want to be in the coming working years.
I think most will have to pivot in some way. For me at the moment at least, pivoting is very hard mentally. I think that I can survive for the time being, but I am going to have to make sure I can take care of myself, sooner rather than later.
It's tough but I think technology will continue to be a huge part of our lives. However, your experiences will still be useful to the people growing up. Maybe people need another person to talk to and get a different perspective but it does put labor in a bad situation. I just wonder what will happen when a large part of the workforce is disillusioned. Will they rely on the government to pay them using UBI? I don't know what will happen for society to adapt.
I think that UBI might work to stop poverty, but it won't empower most people to improve themselves, unless there is a shift in the paradigm of society. I have written a few pieces on it a long time ago in both the negative and positive, but I am pretty sure that it will lead to more economic slavery.
The choice is ours: we can either fear new technology and resist it like the Luddites, or we can embrace it and continue to develop it. History has shown us that resisting technological advancements is futile, and even the Luddites had to adapt and acquire new skills or risk being left behind. I appreciate your thought-provoking article.
People should fear it. Resistance is futile, but fear is a warning signal to be careful. Too many embrace technology without considering the ramifications and consequences.
Well, for AI to replace some parts of daily life, it has to be integrated into society very well and there should be a generation change as older people would probably not get used to it.
I think it is already being integrated and we aren't even paying attention. Look at your phone camera and the settings to improve the pictures automatically. We don't even think about the way it affects our lives and where it is hidden from us. Pretty much all digital action is facilitated by AI.
This one has not been integrated yet :)
https://www.unilad.com/technology/warehouse-robot-collapses-after-working-for-20-hours-straight-835616-20230501
I love using AI tools everyday and I can't help but wonder how easy it is to run a solo business nowadays. A couple of tools under your stack and you can make a living on the internet. We have come so far.
People are going to lose jobs, not to AI, but to people using AI.
I suspect that most of the people who think that they will use AI well, actually won't be as proficient as they think they are in comparison to those who can actually use it well. Endusers, are still users, drug addicts of a kind. It is the creators who will have the true value - not content creators using AI in ways that anyone can.
I think you put too much pressure on your ability to innovate and adapt to the new reality that coming our way. I believe you can bring and add value in the next 20 years before you hit your retirement target.
I don't put enough pressure on it in my opinion. I am far from creative these days and learning anything new comes with additional challenges for me now.
Yay! 🤗
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AI, the world is now in chaos. Company's have forgotten that it is people who buy food and services and they can't get them without not working.
The advancement of technology may put some to planning a heist to rob Banks to live life. The majorities aren't moved by this advancement. Only the minorities are. A sad dangerous world we live in.
Companies don't care. They maximize and the economy will find an equilibrium - starving those who can't afford to participate.
Smh... The world is getting more crazier and there isn't a cure for it.
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Exactly this! I've already been through four careers in my 20-odd years of employment and I'm absolutely dumbfounded by the amount of opportunity available now. I would like to believe I am a quick learner, but as I compare myself to the younger and more technologically inclined workforce, I realize I have a lot of new ground to cover.
However, I do think I would fit nicely in several of those new-world AI roles, but it will definitely take some re-education on my part. At least I am up for the challenge, I know plenty of other peers who are not. What I'm not ready for is to take on new student loan debt, that is just unsustainable. But I would commit to working for a company on a 5-year contract in AI if they took the time to provide me with some education along the way.
And just to touch on the other issue, I think eventually universal basic income will be needed. If we have all this amazing technology that will replace the need for humans to do menial tasks, it is unfair for the top few percent to hoard that technological wealth themselves. There needs to be some equitable system to allow for people without the means to learn the technology to have basic human needs met - ultimately this will be the pressing challenge of this century. Can the elites be bothered to share the profits of technological advancement with the wider society or hoard all the success for themselves? I certainly hope it is the former because once too many people are without jobs and anything to do, the only thing left to do is revolt and I'd rather not have to live through that in my 50s and 60s when I should be getting ready to retire.
As technology advances, the digital world will be perfected, however, human resources will always be needed, since they are ideal.
I like how they always predict the what and keep shut about why certain things happen. They don't give conclusive thinks to do. It is all rather dysfunctional. Another hand if they would provide both, it is hard to implement a hierarchy.
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