Of Average Impact

Raising a child for the future is hard. Not because the skills they will need are unknown, but because no matter how well the job is done, the real problem for them is going to be how all of their peers were raised. The society my daughter is going to face will be fundamentally different to what I was raised in, because the children of today are raised in very different ways than the generations before. Now, screens are doing a lot of the raising for them.

While our daughter was spending a couple hours with a family member at a museum show, my wife and I went and had lunch and a coffee together, and I was talking about this. She doesn't see the same threats as me, and she also thinks that there is a lot of time before impacts will truly be seen, even though she has noted some of the signs it in the twenty-somethings she has interviewed for jobs. However, she also thinks that many people raise their children in a similar way to us - wanting what is best for them.

I asked her if she had heard about the 14-year old boy who committed suicide and she hadn't, because she avoids that kind of news. What she said was she doesn't want to click on that kind of content in her feeds, because she doesn't want to be fed more of that - she doesn't want to train the algorithms to think that she wants more. And herein lays the problem for many, because she is still training the algorithm, and she is getting more of what she wants to see, but that doesn't mean she is getting what she needs to see.

This particular story might not be it, but if the algorithms are curating our feeds to what we like, there is going to be a large amount that we miss. We are putting ourselves in a silo. As uncomfortable as it might be for my wife to read about these kinds of terrible stories, she should because her daughter is going to grow into a culture that is going to be filled with people who have been raised on screens, who rely on AI to guide them, to be their companions, to feed them intimacy. Amongst other things. Regardless of how we raise our daughter, she is going to meet people similar, as after all, that boy who feel in love with an AI version of a TV character, was only six years older than our daughter.

When we got home a few hours later, I was checking in on the Finnish news in English and came across an article stating that while Finnish children got enough sleep, they spent too much time on screens, according to the WHO. Only one-fifth of kids met the daily guidelines of one hour or less a day. I Now, while I am not keen on WHO recommendations a lot of the time, I mentioned this to my wife that the average was one hour twenty for Finnish children. She said, "that is not so bad". True. But then I mentioned that this study was for three and four year old children. She was shocked.

I was not.

I actually suspect that the real number is far higher, but even at the 80 minutes, it is high, because it is an average. Let's say that there are 100 children in the study, making the total minutes spent on a screen, 8000. Each day 20 of them watch for 60 minutes, which is 1200. But that is not the case, because there will be children like my daughter at that age who watch 0 minutes, and some who watch the 60. The zero might be rare, so let's put it at 45 minutes on average for those 20 kids - that is 900 minutes - or 15 hours a day.

That means that the average for the 80 kids remaining is 7100/80 = 89 minutes. But, this is going to also follow a bell curve also, where there will be some who are just above the hour, and some who are at the other extreme. If the next twenty are watching for the low 60 minutes, it equals 1200. The next twenty are watching for the average of all at 80 minutes, it is 1600. The next twenty are watching for the average of 100 minutes, for 2000 minutes. That leaves the last twenty watching for 2300 minutes, or 115 minutes each. That is close to double the recommended.

WHO recommendations for children 3-4 years of age

• Physical activity: Spend at least three hours in a variety of types of physical activities, of which at least one hour is moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity, spread throughout the day.
• Sleep: Have 10–13 hours of good quality sleep, which may include a nap, with regular sleep and wake-up times.
• Screen time: Sedentary screen time should be no more than one hour. Less is better.
• Sitting still: Avoid being restrained for more than one hour at a time (prams/strollers) or sit for extended periods.
  _{Source: WHO guidelines on physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep for children under 5 years of age}

Now, the problem isn't the "double the recommended" but rather, what is the behavioral and cognitive differences created between the low end and the high end of the scales on average? It might be hard to see in a three or four year old, but what happens down the track, assuming that the trajectory continues similarly? Are there observable differences in early education? In primary and high school? In university? Are there differences in mental capacity, emotional stability, physical condition? Are there differences in patience, speed of gratification, interpersonal skills and motivation?

I suspect so.

My job as a parent is to raise a child who is capable of taking care of herself throughout her life, in conditions that are probably unfamiliar to me. I can't teach her right now what is right or wrong in that future, but I can help her develop the skills that allow her to adapt to multiple environments. The environment is not just a technical landscape filled with gadgets and algorithms, but also one that includes peers and social interactions with people who have not only different upbringings, but potentially many with volatile personalities who have high entitlement issues, low responsibility and consequence beliefs, and an attitude that they should get what they want, when they want it, as they have been conditioned through an on-demand system.

The skills to navigate the world are not learned through screens, because that environment is theoretical, in the same way that a surgeon has to leave the books behind and cut into flesh at some point. Knowing is not being able to apply. For instance, most people know that delaying gratification is an important skill to have, yet how many are able to apply it to their daily behaviors?

My wife argues that there are a "lot of smart kids" out there, and she is not wrong. However, we also have to look at other aspects, because older people will often confuse a smart kid as someone who is able to do things they cannot. For instance, I was considered "smart" by my father in law the other day, because I was able to get their internet connection working. That is not intelligence, it is familiarity. Being a good consumer, doesn't make a person a creator.

And then of course, intelligence isn't the only factor that is important, as for example, I know quite a few very intelligent people, who treat people poorly, or are unable to maintain a quality relationship, who are clinically depressed, or have no control over their emotional state, and the reactive behaviors that follow. An intelligent person has a well-rounded set of intelligences that are able to provide an environment and conditions that help them succeed in life, at all the areas that are truly important to them.

Most parents work on assumption and intuition, assuming that they know what is best for their children, and assuming that their children are able to handle what they think is best for them. Parents think they "know best" when it comes to all factors that are important to the health and wellbeing of their child, even though they haven't considered if what they know in these areas is valid at all. Feeling like it is the right thing to do, doesn't make it so.

I hope I am wrong and the majority of kids in this world are going to grow into adults that have a high degree of life satisfaction, and build a society that supports the increase of wellbeing across the entire population. But, based on what I see now, I don't see that happening in the future. It is more likely to get more volatile, more cutthroat, and less secure socially. Screen time isn't the sole cause of this by any measure, but it is one of the many contributing factors that indicate that all is not well in the community now, and that is going to compound further into the future.

There are about 100,000 3-4 year old children in Finland, which means that combined, they are spending 8,000,000 minutes each day in front of a screen. That is 133,333 hours. That is 5,500 days spent in front of a screen, each day.

3-4 year old children in Finland spend 15 years in front of a screen. Every day.

You think these small numbers don't add up?

Now consider, for those two years between those ages, there are kids spending 1400 hours in front of a screen. And there are some children spending 1400 hours doing something else.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]