A New Ice Age

For the majority of people there is little question that the overall world climate is warming. There is even a general consensus that humans are responsible, to the point that the period in which human activity becoming significant in the earth's development has been coined, the Antrhopocene.

For many years the generic term used was Global Warming because, overall, the background temperature of the planet will rise. Much of the early research and modelling was done by oil companies and started in the mid-to-late seventies. According to those who have studied the research Exxon's model had an accuracy of over ninety percent.

Oddly, oil companies chose not to follow the direction of their own research, and have instead spent huge amounts of money in playing down the effcts of the earth's changing climate.

Those early studies pointed to observable changes by the year 2000. The data shows this.

So is my title a bait and switch? Is it clickbait, designed to draw readers in? No, and Yes.

I'm not about to launch into a convoluted explanation of why climate always changes and this is just a periodical variation. But I definitely wanted folks to click through to find out what relief from the heat their may be.

Here, in Britain, we are further north than the entire contiguous United States. Where we used to live, Crieff in Perthsire, is further north than Moscow. Yet British winters are generally cool and wet rather than freezing and snowy (despite what films display, December snow in London is rare, having happened six times since 1960).

Each year, when my friend in Collingwood, Ontario, mentions their snowfall I send a picture of me in t-shirt enjoying a sunny day, and suggest she move north.

What is it which keeps the UK not just temperate, but actively warmer than should be expected for the latitude it sits at? The Gulf Stream.

The Gulf Stream is a swift moving ocean current which rides up the coast of North America and crosses the ocean to kiss the shores of Western Europe, including Ireland and Britain.

For many years I have had background worries about what would happen if that stream turned off, or even drifted south so that it's effects were less felt here. I'm not sure why, but can probably tie it into a confluence of learning about The Gulf Stream, and the mini-ice age Britain experienced between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries, around about the same time. There's also vague memories of reading a novel where the Gulf Stream collapsing is tied to other unremembered factors to leave the UK covered in an ice sheet, and the populace seeking refuge further south.

Then, a few years ago, I started reading about the amount of ice loss that Greenland is experiencing. To my inexpert mind the meant the excess fresh water from melting could have the effect of pushing the Gulf Stream south. Other, more capable people, suggested similar.

Now, I learnt today, the Gulf Stream is merely part of a larger oceanic system called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This affects a much wider area, and is theorised to be in danger of changing.

Such a change would almost certainly impact the Gulf Stream in the way I fear and, while global temperatures continue to rise, and areas see increasingly regular heat bubbles, domes, or the like, Britain could lose its temperate winters and experience the snow and ice everyone else who lives at our latitude suffers through annually.

The cost of such a change is not something the country is prepared for. A centimetre of snow, a few days of ice, are sufficient to shut the majority of things down across vast parts of the constituent parts of the United Kingdom. Yet, due to the rarity of these events it is not really worth the expense of buidling infrastructure to deal with it.

It's very possibly it is an expense which may become a necessity over the next couple of decades.

words by stuartcturnbull picture Hunt_on_Photos_Studio on Pixabay