RE: 2024: The Beginning of the End of the Mobile Phone?
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As somebody else pointed out... things that are smaller aren't going to replcae phones. We've tried it a dozen times with clamshell phones, miniature phones, smart watches, smart glasses.
The very point of the screen is something we want, so we can play games and have some kind of tactile relationship with a device that holds everything dear to us (photos, videos to name an obvious pair).
You can imagine a hyper futuristic situation where you have contact lenses that display photos and videos in front of you, with some wireless conection to a pin on your shirt or something but it just doesn't hit the right balance.
It's like how people on Kickstarter constantly try and make scammy campaigns to improve things that are essentially as good as they can get: batteries that charge in 10 seconds and last 5 years, solar panels that are 90% efficient, roads that use recycled material.
It's all inferior to what we actually have, people are just trying to appeal to the idea of a utopian breakthrough.
I can't see these phones being replaced as they are - that's why every single brand across all price ranges look identical, because nothing beats it.
Futuristic fiction writers always imagine really dumb replacements: Holograms, transparent, glassy phones with projections popping up off the screen. None of it will come to fruition outside of a brief gimmicky moment like the recent folding phone gimmick.
Some things just aren't as good as they're told to be. Like Flying cars. Who wants them? Horrible idea lol
Yes, I guess time will tell what happens. I think a lot of folks are underestimating the power of AI in the equation. I would have a really hard time swapping my phone for a voice-only device but I'm starting to wrap my head around how it would work and when I think about it it seems a bit freeing to be untethered from something I have to stare at, even if it doesn't do 100% of what phones currently do. The future rarely pans out as we predict it will but I think whatever replaces mobile phones will appear soon.
I've made a few habits in life to reduce my screen time. I'd support AI if that was the direction it would take, but it definitely wouldn't - maximizing usage is maximizing profit, after all.
I just try and take some steps back and have some habits to reduce screentime - have a watch on my wrist, phone permanently on silent (I miss every phone call lol).
I can only see a future where AI expands screen time, or complements it (such as a watch/glasses). I'd bet money it could not replace screens. It's like the idea of food pills, where one pill gives us all the energy and vitamins we ever need in a day.
But... why would we want that? We enjoy eating.
I do agree something big will be happening right around the corner though. 2024 is the year of AI, for sure.