What Turkey’s EV Gamble with China Really Means

When two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers; but when they dance, the ground also shakes.

Turkey’s red-carpet welcome for China’s BYD in 2024 was more than just about electric vehicles. It was about pride, positioning, and power. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan shook hands with Wang Chuanfu, BYD’s boss, as if sealing a new industrial revolution for his nation. Officials in Manisa even dreamed aloud of a “Chinatown,” as though the arrival of Chinese workers would automatically mean prosperity for Turkey.

But one year later, the factory site is little more than a dusty plot with a few containers. No cranes, no towering structures, no thunder of industry. Just silence. On paper, the $1bn project was meant to challenge Europe and perhaps elevate Turkey as a global EV hub. In reality, it raises a tougher question: who truly benefits when foreign giants set up shop in your backyard?

Turkey’s own domestic EV brand, TOGG, was hailed as a symbol of independence and proof that the nation could innovate rather than imitate. Yet the arrival of BYD casts a long shadow. If China’s biggest EV maker fully plants itself in Turkey, will TOGG flourish or will it be quietly suffocated under the weight of BYD’s pricing power, supply chain control, and global reach?

The optics matter here. Turkey wanted prestige. China wanted access to both the Turkey’s market and, more importantly, to Europe’s. What looks like a “partnership” could just as easily become a case of Turkey providing cheap labor, favorable policy, and geographical access, while the lion’s share of the wealth and influence flows eastward.

Some observers dismiss the lack of progress in Manisa as poor execution. But think deeper: what if the delay itself is strategy? BYD may be keeping Turkey on a leash, holding the project as leverage against European regulators or Hungarian negotiations. Turkey becomes less a host and more a pawn. And pawns, in global business chess, are always expendable.

nations brag about “sovereign industry” and “strategic autonomy,” Turkey’s eagerness to embrace China could backfire. Imagine a future where Turkish roads are full of Chinese EVs, Turkish workers assemble them under Chinese management, and TOGG is reduced to a patriotic footnote. Will Turkey have truly won the EV race or merely become the factory floor for someone else’s empire?