Are autonomous vehicles the holy grail of transport?

If someone can help me reverse-parallel-park, please take the responsibility by all means…’ is a thought that circulates in my brain as much as blood does. The unnecessary pressure that comes with reverse parallel parking, in a parking lot that is filled to the brim, is something that perhaps even a formula one racer would not like to experience. So if I can sit back and relax until another entity does it for me, why wouldn’t I take the chance? And autonomous vehicles (AVs) seem to fit the bill. Or is that a grave misconception?

The advent and evolution of autonomous vehicles is a topic that is spoken of far and wide. There are claims that the world is on the cusp of a transport revolution where self-driven vehicles are the ones taking the wheel. While society dreamed of a time when there were fully autonomous vehicles and ‘oohed’ and ‘aahed’ when we saw KITT the car in ‘Knight Rider’, never did we assume that the industry of vehicles will change this fast to the point that there is not just one version of autonomous vehicles but rather, many.

How far have AVs travelled?

Fully autonomous vehicles refer to vehicles that have the capability of operating without any human intervention. These vehicles function on a spectrum of different autonomy levels, spanning from level 1 to level 5. The potential offered by AVs is substantial owing to the fact that they extend mobility to those who were unable to drive before such as children or disabled individuals. Apart from that, a few of the main reasons that (partially) convinced the world that self-driving vehicles should be an integral part of our lives was because the benefits put forth were alluring.

AVs are:

-beneficial economically,

-capable of transforming road safety (because road accidents caused by vehicles were declared to be the main cause of untimely deaths),

-enabling the goal of reaching net zero (reducing the carbon footprint),

-boost productivity by saving the time that humans spend strapped to a seat, an accelerator, and a wheel. For individuals with lengthy commutes, using autonomous vehicles can enable them to work while on the move.

-Could revolutionise the way that consumers experience mobility: this is mainly because autonomous driving can enhance safety, convenience, and enjoyment for drivers. The time that was previously spent focused on the road can be redirected to doing something stress-free and less demanding in terms of concentration.

Interestingly, the latest development of AVs is the “Robotaxis”. This, I believe, comes from the concept of ‘Transportation as a Service’ (Taas). Autonomous vehicles are driving the development of a business model that banks on Taas. Instead of owning a car, individuals could subscribe to a transportation service, requesting autonomous vehicles when required. It is something similar to Uber and Lyft, minus the talking.

Driverless robotaxis have been on test runs for quite some time. They are open to the public in countries like the U.S.A. While this idea was initially brought to the table by Waymo (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet), it now has a fair share of competitors. Cruise is one such competitor.

In early August 2023, Japanese auto giant Toyota teamed together with Pony.ai: a Chinese autonomous driving startup to invest USD 140 Mn to mark the genesis of a joint venture. This will facilitate the widespread implementation of autonomous taxi services throughout the roads of China.

Toyota has been a long-term investor in Pony.ai where the Guangzhou-based company of the latter even used a GAC-Toyota vehicle for its pilot project of testing out an unmanned taxi service. The company data illustrated that as of May 2023, they had furnished over 1 million rides to more than 600,000 passengers. An indication that people have not shied away from the initiative.

While taxis seem to be creating a league of their own, the UK launched its first self-driving bus on public roads in May 2023. This endeavour of Autonomous Bus Technology Ltd. is thought to be the world’s inaugural undertaking of its kind where they used a full-scale autonomous public bus. Its trial run happened under full safety precautions where the bus was not just running by itself but had two staff members onboard. A driver who monitored the technology and was well prepared to take over at the first sign of concern and a conductor who collected tickets. And in case you were worried about the speed, the bus can only run at 50mph. They are designed in such a manner that they can proficiently navigate themselves through complex urban settings, comply with traffic regulations, and give importance to the safety of passengers.

With so many leaps and jumps in the AV industry in place, why are we then still hovering at the brink of a revolution and not already in one? Despite a prediction in 2019 (done by Allied Market Reach) that stated that the global autonomous vehicle market is projected to reach USD 556.67 Bn in the year 2026, the foretold ‘revolution’ that AVs were supposed to manoeuvre seems to be happening only in fragments and does not seem to keep up with the numbers. While Tesla, Benz and BMW may be fighting to beat each other at the game, the world does not seem particularly sold on the idea of AVs just yet.

Public trust seems to be a key barrier, where their understanding does not mirror the technological advancements. As a matter of fact, it falls far behind. Sure it looks fancy on paper and in advertisements, but how does it really function in a real-life setting? And their fear is very well justified, especially if you read about Elaine Herzberg’s death that was caused by an Uber autonomous test vehicle in Arizona, United States in the year 2018.

And as of January 2023, carmakers have admitted to a total of 419 autonomous vehicle crash reports. 263 of them have been in level 2 advanced driver assistance systems and 156 have been in fully autonomous vehicles. This leads to the question of what are these levels and why is it not translated into a language that everyone speaks.

Only a thorough reading of what AVs entail will inform you that amidst the advances they are making, there are multiple levels of autonomy and only one level is truly autonomous. While there are 5 levels starting from level 0, only the highest level can enable a vehicle to drive all by itself with no assistance.

It is clear that the concept of autonomous vehicles has not driven itself all the way home yet and is still stuck at a roadblock that requires well-thought out solutions.