On March 4th, 2023, I announced an experiment of delegation to Ecency to prove that it’s probably the most profitable (in terms of APY) delegations feasible for a newcomer who posts frequently.

Here are the results of this week’s delegation with Ecency, and following this, a legend of the columns used, as well as a bit of analysis of the week:

Legend

Day: well, this one’s pretty self-explanatory. It starts the day after I delegated to Ecency so that there’s at least 24 hours permitted for rewards to kick in. It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Delegated to Ecency: this is how much total Hive Power (HP) I have delegated to Ecency on the provided day. It is a value used indirectly in the APY calculation.
Average Hive Delegation to Date: this is the average of my delegated Hive Power (HP) to Ecency, current to the provided day. This gives an accurate value of how much delegation has been given over time, inclusive of all rewards (from Ecency Boosts and from other sources, including posts and comments). Since this value shows contributes directly to the rewards I get from Ecency, it is the most accurate value to use in calculating APY. Hence, it is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Reward: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from Ecency delegations on the provided day.
Total Hive Reward: this is how much I have in rewards in HP from Ecency delegations in total, up to the provided day. It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Earned From Boosts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP due to Ecency boosts on the provided day, including the votes that come as a result of following Ecency’s curation trail (this value is approximate). It’s difficult to calculate earnings from promotions, and will not be included in this calculation.
Total Hive Earned From Boosts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP due to Ecency boosts in total, up to the provided day, including the votes that come as a result of following Ecency’s curation trail (this value is approximate). It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Earned From Posts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from posting and is inclusive of boosts and promotions, on the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation.
Total Hive Earned from Posts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from posting and is inclusive of boosts and promotions, in total, up to the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation.
Other Hive Earned: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from other sources (i.e. comments, swing trades, etc.) on the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation. I have also come to realize that this is the most inaccurate and inconsistent column I have – please regard it only as a very, very rough estimate.
Hive Reinvested into Ecency Delegation: this is how much Hive I have reinvested into Ecency delegations on the provided day, and is all-inclusive (since I reinvest earnings from posts, comments, etc.). Its only relevance to the APY calculation is that it brings up my total amount delegated to Ecency. That particular aspect is included in the “Hive Delegated to Ecency” column.
Hive Earned APY To Date: this is the calculated APY based on the “Average Hive Delegation to Date,” “Total Hive reward,” and “Total Hive Earned From Boosts.” This provides a fair calculation of earning which are directly due to Ecency’s rewards (in Hive and boosts), while taking into account the growing delegation and changes in rewards over time. The APY is recorded on a daily basis and will paint a more accurate picture with more time. Some initial values (after the rewards from the initial boosts come in) may be outrageously high due to boosts from preexisting Ecency points (I had >3500, which is equivalent to 23 boosts, or <23 boosts + more promotions); these are accurate values but skewed due to the small time frame. They will become more accurate and reflective of reality over time. There is also a 7 day delay in some earnings, which may further skew the APY. While reinvestments from non-Ecency sources (i.e. posts, comments, trading, etc.) may cause the APY to appear larger, using the “Average Hive Delegation to Date” as a divisor compensates for this effect, thus giving a more accurate APY that’s a result of only Ecency delegation. It is the most fair divisor to use in this calculation because it accounts for changes in delegation over time, is a direct contributor to subsequent delegation rewards, and accounts for reinvested Hive Power only after it has been delegated to Ecency.
Total Ecency Points: this is the total amount of Ecency points that I have available on the provided day. Note that I begin with >3300 points, which is equivalent to 23 boosts, or <23 boosts + more promotions. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Ecency Points Earned From Delegation: this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Total Ecency Points Earned From Delegation: this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned in total, up to the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Daily Ecency Points Earned (All Sources): this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned through other activities (commenting, voting, posting, etc.) on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Ecency Points Spent on Boosts / Promotions: this is the amount of Ecency points that I spent on boosts and promotions on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood. Looking 7 days ahead to the HP earned in boosts will reveal how much the points translate into HP.
HBD Spent to Buy Ecency Points: this is how much HBD I spent to buy Ecency points. At market value, 1000 Ecency Points = 2 HBD.

Graphical Representation

Here are some graphs to help visually represent the progress being made in this experiment. They are adapting data directly from the spreadsheet shown above, using the same legend.

In the first graph, our Y axes consist of: Hive and APY %; these are divided into data sets consisting of Hive Delegated to Ecency (orange), Average Hive Delegation to Date (yellow), and Hive Earned APY to Date (blue, and this is a percentage). The X axis is the Day, so you can follow the daily trend.

In the second graph, our Y axis consists of APY %, represented by Hive Earned APY to Date. The X axis consists of Average Hive Delegation to Date. This one’s a little bit tricky, so I’ll explain it to clear things up: recall that during the first week, I accidentally removed delegation from Ecency. This made the Average Hive Delegation to Date decrease (move to the left on the X axis); subsequently, I increased the delegation, causing it to increase, thus moving to the right on the X axis. Thus, in terms of time, the experiment begins at the bottom, where the Average Delegation to Hive is just about 100% and the APY is ~10%. Following the line to the left, and then subsequently to the right gives the proper timeline.

From this point forward, unless an accidental undelegation occurs, you can continue reading this graph from left to right, as the delegation will be increasing rather than decreasing! Please let me know in the comments whether this is at all unclear and I’ll explain further.

This Week’s Earning Analysis

Last week, I bet on an APY to date of ~78%. So how accurate was my guess? The APY to date as of the end of this week is 72.51%. Ouch! That was far lower than expected, and some reasons are outlined below (but in short, this is an underestimate of the true value). Regardless, it looks like I’ll have to post even more! I do again have 2 posts this week, and more are forthcoming. Now, let’s see what happened over the course of this week:

Day 92 began a little bit unexpectedly. While the Hive price was near its lowest in a long while, I had expected a reward of >2 Hive from last week’s Boost (recall that when Hive’s price is lower, a $1 Boost gives more Hive as a reward, which is mathematically expected), but instead received only ~1.25 Hive. I then figured out why: I had accidentally left the post rewards as 50%/50% HP / HBD. Well, from this came a pleasant surprise: >2 HBD, which I used a few days later to purchase more Ecency points!

Now, I will make the point that my APY did come out lower than the actual APY because of this error of not having 100% of my rewards converted into HP. Since it’s relatively minor in the long term, I didn’t make any adjustments. I’d say this only plays in favor of the Ecency delegation, as my conclusion in the long term will consider this fact, as this error happens once in a while.

Day 96 had my next reward, which was correctly set up. That one raised my APY less than expected, however. In fact, it was even lower than the APY that I had at the close of last week! That means my APY is definitely dropping from last week. Ahhh!

Day 97 was interesting: I finally broke the 300 HP delegation mark! I also lost out on 15 Ecency points because it didn’t register my post (and I paid out for the 150 Point Boost). Finally, I purchased 1243 Ecency Points for 2.486 HBD (primarily from the reward I earned on Day 92).

Now I’ll challenge myself and everyone else reading this to guess the upcoming week’s APY to date. Keep these major factors in mind: 1) I posted 2 times this week and Boosted both posts; 2) this will be a transition from week 14 → week 15 (which directly affects the math). Due to this level of posting, my guess for the next week’s APY to date will be ~76%, and for the following week just about the same if I continue to post twice per week (~76%; will give an updated value guess next week!).

https://images.ecency.com/p/PB8ro82ZpZP35bVGjGoE93K3E4U5KX8KtMBJ2rguR8yy8ipCW8pj1nBBykuAvaDJvZRdL5EuCaqMAdro7XecAyiNqHjNroaX3fksdXgkU2ybgWFp.webp?format=webp&mode=fit

^{LeoGlossary Sources: 1 2
Chart and Graph Source: self}

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It should be noted that my medicine-themed posts and the Ecency Delegation Experiment posts have @stemsocial as a 5% beneficiary, the Ecency Delegation Experiment Posts will have @leo.voter as a 5% beneficiary (thank you for the freedom of speech!), and all of my posts now have a variable percentage as a beneficiary to @hive-140084 (the FreeCompliments community; these rewards will be used as a reinvestment vehicle and as a reward pool for everyone who posts and comments in the community, except for illegal content, and threads about the community!).

I hope that you’ve found this analysis informative. While it is not financial advice, it may be useful as a methodology of calculating your own returns on various projects on the Hive network.

Here are the prior weeks’ posts for further reference:
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13

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