To what extent can power generation from oil derivatives be viable?

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(Edited)

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Greetings friends of the community of Project Hope

On this occasion I would like to share with you an analysis about being able to know to what extent it is profitable to produce hydrocarbons such as oil and natural gas.

For this occasion I want to make this analysis taking into consideration that the feasibility to produce hydrocarbons such as oil and natural gas will be done under a normal scenario, where oil prices are supposed to be normal under a condition of supply and demand as we have had in previous years.

Perhaps many will ask themselves: if the feasibility of oil exploitation is not going to be analyzed from the point of view of prices, then what are the factors that influence the evaluation of such feasibility?

The answer to that question has perhaps been in the thoughts of many, for example have you ever thought about the circumstances that extracting one barrel of oil can demand 2 barrels of oil in the energy equivalent for its extraction?

Of course what I mentioned before can happen, generally this happens in hydrocarbon fields called unconventional fields, in these fields a lot of energy and resources are required to extract oil and natural gas that are found in unconventional ways in these fields, unfortunately the extraction of this oil has been facilitated under techniques that are not friendly to the environment, as is the case of hydraulic fracturing (fraking), where the use of this technique saves costs but we contaminate the surface aquifers of fresh water.

When it is said that oil will cease to exist, in part it also refers to the fact that the few deposits that may remain by then are the so-called unconventional deposits in which its extraction becomes economically unprofitable.

The question that I ask myself, and that perhaps many people ask themselves:

Why under this scenario, clean and renewable energy alternatives do not end up replacing oil?

From my perspective the answer is simple, since we still have oil, we as humanity have not been concerned with making the technological and scientific advances that are pertinent for the existing clean and renewable energy alternatives to be economically and highly potential, and thus replace oil.

I believe that the time to really implement 100% renewable energies is when oil extraction will no longer be profitable. At the moment, oil extraction is not very profitable because its prices are low, but once normality is restored, it will be profitable again.

The scenario that can change this situation is when the oil runs out, I am going to show you the following graph:

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This graph is a representation of Hubbert's peak theory, also known as zenith oil, peak oil or oil depletion, is an influential theory about the long-term rate of depletion of oil, as well as other fossil fuels. It predicts that world oil production will come to an end and then decline as fast as it grew, highlighting the fact that the limiting factor in oil extraction is the energy required and not its economic cost.
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Indeed if you look at the graph, the first years since oil was discovered the demand and production of oil has been rising until the year 2000 which is the maximum point, however this theory predicts that after this maximum peak we will find a decline at the same rate as when the curve was rising, so we can estimate that perhaps oil can be achieved commercially profitable until the end of the year 2200.

What do I think will happen in the century from 2100 to 2200?

Unfortunately, humanity is used to working and contributing under quite pressing situations, perhaps by those dates when oil is scarce and the energy demand is greater, then scientific and technological advances are so good that the same clean and renewable energy sources of today can have a good recovery in terms of energy potential and come to replace oil completely.

I hope that this complete and profound analysis can serve to clarify many doubts that many may have on this controversial subject.



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We are moving slowly from the oil standard.

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