HF21 - Why HF21 will ultimately be good for authors
tl;dr - Steem will be worth more, and better policing will keep a huge amount of spam from being rewarded and it'll go to the good authors and the hodlers on the platform.
I didn't start in favor of this
I didn't like 50:50 curation for a long time. I started on this platform with nothing. I had no steem, no bitcoin, no crypto, and really no knowledge of what I was even doing. I made my initial grounds by authoring and blogging. So, when I think of my roots I'm a content creator on Steem.
I want authors to do well. That's really important. Let me ask the authors something. How's the current system working out for you? From what I've noticed my posts don't really earn jack nor shit and the price of steem keeps falling.
There's a good possibility that everything we think to do is pissing in the wind because all alts are still getting rekted, but we're getting rekted more so than many
So, authors are about to get pretty hard on the surface of this next Hard Fork. The Steem Proposal System is going to draw 10% of total steem supply to the worker fund. That will cut author rewards. Then there's the change from 75% of the Steem going to the author down to 50% going to the author. All told at first glance the author is going to lose 40% of the reward that they have been used to getting.
I'm a top 20 witness and I've been blogging here for three years. My median reward these days on a post is $3. So, I'm not feeling like I'm losing all that much.
On the flip side we're gaining a really powerful tool in the form of the SPS. Having a supply of funds that we can allocate in bigger chunks than post by post should help us.
THe other thing that I think will be the unsung hero of this is that holding powered up Steem will be twice as valuable. Right now there's a pretty good question: I understand why you'd hold 100 steem, or why you'd hold 10 Million. I don't understand why you'd hold 1000.
Well, I personally enjoy holding Steem, but if I were suddenly getting twice as much in curation it starts to make sense to hold more Steem. It scales well too. If I have 10k Steem and then power up to 20K Steem I will get twice as much benefit.
If everyone starts having more reason to power up Steem maybe the sell pressure slows, and maybe the buy pressure increases. If people start buying because it helps them earn more then hopefully the price increases and post rewards are actually stronger.
What about bid bots?
So, right now trending is totally dominated by bid bots. I think it's a healthy thing for the ecosystem that you can purchase votes and get onto trending. But I don't think it's healthy that we're completely dominated by it and don't seem to have any really good defense against it.
So, the two things that I like about SPS for this are the down votes and the fact that curation might start to matter again.
So, lots of shit posts use bid bots. There isn't really any consequence. They upvote. No down votes come. And... that's the end. Bid bots make money and the voter makes money.
Now comes down votes. The author shit posts. The user base doesn't allow it to earn by tossing down votes, and the bid bot delegators get hurt because they are losing a lot in curation. The delegators themselves start to have a vested interest in bid bot owners being careful about what content is allowed to be voted so that they protect their investment.
I think it'll make good bid bots profitable and anything goes bid bots unprofitable.
A part of good bid botting will be using down votes from the bid bots. It's bit like asking the police to police themselves. There's certainly some possibility of abuse here too, but in general if the bid bot owners use smart downvotes to take down shitty content then they can provide a higher return to their investors. Bots that do this I think will be rewarded with delegations. Those that wont' I think will lose it.
So, across the board I'm hopeful that flagging/downvoting can be used to level rewards, increased curator amounts will make for more reasons to hold Steem which should increase price, and bid bot behavior will hopefully change too.
Those are my thoughts, but Steem is the land of unintended consequences. We'll see how it actually lands, but I don't think the doom and gloomers are right.
New Steem right over that ridge.
It's going to be an adjustment for sure. I never make to much on my posts so dropping down to 50% is not a huge deal. On the other side this does motivate me to write better content and maybe explore parts on Steem that I have not been a part of yet.
In just hoping it reduces the almost need for people to post so much to get rewards and post less but post quality and then focus on rewarding those who do via caution
We don’t know what will happen but I think we’ve outgrown the phase we in and it’s time for change
This sounds reasonable. The currently Steem setup pushes me personally to try to post every day. That’s not going to lead to the best content. It’s just not possible.
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Lightweight topics will not earn downvotes while heavy controversial might drown in them. That is how the internet works everywhere. It won't be different here, which is a shame because Social =!= Fair, but we know that already...
The REAL meaning of a Downvote?
An upvote is not a sign of quality nor is a downvote the counterpart. It's just a downvote, a tool for ppl to cause tiny harm to the achievements of others.
I think the way D.Tube handels downvotes is way more natural behavior for a mass media society. Avalon lowers the visibility of downvoted content but doesn't cut the reward. In some cases, initial downvotes increase the curation rewards for later upvoters.
Great post @aggroed plus I see all your efforts to support the Steem ecosystem. Thanks for all that!!
Take care, and have a good one. Hope to see you for our next #spud .
I say, 'Wind it all the way back'.
Exponential rewards, 50/50, 2 year power-downs. Delicious.
It was a masterful duet, played out with maths and game theory.
I miss it. This is a step in the right direction; but it feels like a passionate relationship ended in a cold break-up; and a few years later we've decided to resurrect a friendship.
It's okay, and its nice to hang out again, but I remember what we had, and this isn't it.
Ditto.
Bring back the whale experiment!
I prefer to win 1 steem worth 3 dollars, to win 10 steem worth 20 cents, that's true.
Better to win 10 Steem at 20 cents and HODL all the way to 10 Steem worth $50.00
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Yes, you are right, but it was enough accumulation time, We need the changes that lead us to a better price.
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Some logical reasoning here A. All incentives which encourage users to power-up and accumulate Steem should be welcomed at the point.
SK.
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You know how much Steem I have earned from curation for all time? 118.21 SP. Now, if Steem were at some of the previous rates, that actually might not be too bad. But it's not. If it were to double, and Steem were at a higher price, that actually would be pretty nice. Except much of that SP earned from curation was due to various times when people delegated to me for whatever reason. I'm really lucky for that.
I was really lucky to get a curation from a really awesome whale recently just cuz I asked ppl for suggestions on where to buy a delegation, cuz I had heard the price was really low. And my memory sucks, so I had trouble remembering them all. Even with almost 6k SP with the delegation, I've only earned 5SP in the last 5 days. That's actually not bad, but it's because of all my SP. Even at the price it is now, to get that much SP I'd need to spend $850.
I WISH I had $850 spare to buy Steem. I almost want to cry because I know I shouldn't buy a bunch of Steem, even though I want to.
My point is that "curation", even if it were doubled, only really pays out if you have a ton of SP.
Making it more profitable for the whales might make more people put money in of course. I just hope that at least a few of the whales we might get are at least better than our worst.
So yeah, it probably will actually raise the price.
But, I'll make a lot more posting. I should probably get back into writing fiction and the occasional tech and STEM post to earn a bit. Even though I get pretty crap earnings on most posts, I have a pretty good track record for getting curated. :D I have been extremely lucky in that regard. I wish I had sold all my earnings, eaten nothing all year, bought nothing, and used it all to buy Steem right now.
What I HOPE though is that the funds allocated to pay for development will encourage development and solve some of our issues, in effect adding more to the price than the other things, and perhaps even dealing with our issues, at least to a degree.
Here's to the new hard fork and hoping it helps us all!
It is always best to find positiveness inadversity. Move with the flow and be optimistic. Amidall long discussions on this I find this piece of article at the right place.
For every new inventions, there will be good and bad. but we shall focus on the good and extract positive vibes from it. That is what I am seeing in this post.
Thank you
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Thank you @aggroed for the post. We appreciate your hard effort to support Steem community. As a new comer in Steem I just use my mind to grow my account. Thank you for the description that opened my understanding with regard to HF21. Unlike others who have enough capital money to buy Steem and become the ruler of Steem blockchain. just by relying on our own work, I hope HF21 will help us at STeem because we see Steem as a healthy community.
Responding to the downvote, I hope that it will not harm Steemian, which produces original work and Christianity. do not let the downvote be applied because of feelings of dislike, without, seeing the work that was made. Because if downvote is based on likes and dislikes, it will turn off steemian creative works.
In my journey in Steem I still could not do much. especially with a small Sp of course still limited my steps.
As you have already described how important a power up is, that is what I am trying to do. All of this in hopes will help me manage my account. Even though I still can't do much I will try to stay at Steem. I came across an interesting campaign about power ups. This idea was initiated by @streetstyle with #spud and on September 1 reached the fifth round. #Spud5 is also supported by many other Steemians such as @xpilar, @sultan-aceh and others. I look forward to the upcoming #spud5 I hope to be able to do power ups.
likewise, I hope that there is a lot of whale and dolphin involved in it to help maintain a healthier ecosystem.
Thank you @aggroed
Warm regard from Indonesia
@aggroed, We need New Steem to be more value oriented and welcoming new opportunities. Stay blessed.
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I hope so, for all of us. @aggroed
• Will it impact newbies & minnows positively, encouraging them to stay on the #Steem blockchain?
• What affect will it have on the general stickiness of the social network?
Dear @aggroed
I do agree that 50/50 could potentially work assuming that those who curate would like to stake their tokens (authors usually would sell them right away). It all comes down to our "whales" mindset.
I'm personally a bit worried that bidbots will start powering down and dumping all STEEM, since it may not be very profitable to use them. Of course in a long run that would be a good thing, however for next weeks or even months I would expect growing selling pressure.
Also if we look at PALnet with their 50/50 split, it does seem to be clear to me that they aren't doing that well at all. Let's see how things will look like after hf21.
My biggest concern is non-linear reward curve. I love rewarding solid comments with small upvotes. Many others do the same, and it seem that cost of dropping 0.03$ upvote will be very high after fork. Which will probably destroy culture of rewarding comments :(
And hardly anyone talks about it. People seem to focus on 50/50 split only.
Yours, Piotr
Amazing :)
Fine, but the rewards curve is going to be the thing that makes it hard for authors who don't have whale support to poke their heads above water. That's the issue. The other things are easy to understand and so, sure, they get talked about more. But that's the change that will affect us all the most. 16 Steem to get to break even with today's values?! All the votes on comments will be worthless. All the voting interactions between freewriters will be negligible. The very few cents that people can feel pleased to receive will be reallocated to those who already hold all the cards. This is centralization.
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