Market Influences Short-Medium Term Trends, Technology Sets Long Term Trends
I know people don't like what's been going on lately with the market... That's ok! Everyone has their own tolerance limits. Everyone has their worries and doubts. And markets are experts at playing and preying on our emotions, even more than taking advantage of our inexperience when we first arrive with our hopes up.
Market makers (not literally) aren't called sharks for no reason!
But if one can detach a little bit from the emotions provoked by the sharp decline in the price of HIVE, for example, we need to remember what I said in the title.
Technology, incorporated in various businesses, is the long term trend setter. There was a time when the companies with the highest market cap were industrial. Now, they are all tech-based, at least in part. Market only creates short to medium term variations if we zoom out. Of course, that means there needs to be technological progress to have an uptrend. As a whole there's an accelerated technological rate of progress in the world, but when you analyze domain by domain and business by business, they evolve at different paces. That's how some end up being disrupted, and others, despite being pioneers in a field, either lack the vision to continue, or the proper management to keep going once the startup phase of the business ends.
I often said we have too many gamblers in the crypto verse. But in a way, these things happen naturally where high profits on the short term are possible. Protection of gains is another thing that may trigger short term actions, with a positive or negative outcome.
These periods of disbelief in the market do flush out many of the people without any loyalty in various projects, and in a way it's a cleansing mechanism in crypto. That doesn't mean that everyone who sells isn't loyal. As I said, markets prey on our emotions, and that can be a powerful trigger. But it is an opportunity for others with a long term perspective and interest in different projects to slowly pick up the pieces in the market after the distressed sellers (and not only) dump their assets. If there isn't an initial unfair distribution, that's one way how some people who stick around end up with significantly more stake in the projects they love and support than others who are more like passengers.
Understanding that the long term trend is given by technology advancement (most of the times) doesn't mean one can't take advantage of obvious triggers in the market.
If we put aside the long term plan, which apparently only a small fraction of the people in crypto is really interested in, sometimes we need to outplay the market to stay ahead of the game. But on average, the market outplays us, whoever we are, especially if we focus on the short term movements.
When the 30 cents support of HIVE was broken and recapturing it failed, I understood we are going to see some major red, particularly since it was the short term trend in crypto. Wasn't sure where it would stop, but it was clear it needed to go down pretty sharply before it found a support and gathered the energy to raise again.
So I sold some liquid HIVE at around 28 cents. My mistake was that I purchased SWAP.BTC on Hive-Engine, instead of HBD. It would have been better to buy HBD. But I wasn't sure what BTC was going to do, and I preferred a volatile exposure instead of HBD.
In my Hive goals update from yesterday I also mentioned that I started to buy HIVE with my HBD reserves. Small amounts every day. I will also start buying back SWAP.HIVE with SWAP.BTC because it will reach a price range from where its volatility will be higher than BTC's and ETH's in the up direction too, when it reverses course. That doesn't mean HIVE won't go lower, by the way. It could... It is dependent on what happens in the crypto market, only it started to have a higher volatility since it broke down through the 30 cents support, which is normal for a small cap like HIVE. Abnormal is to be stable. That's what HBD is for.
Overall, keep your eyes on the technology and what it can mean for human kind. Markets help or make things worse for the average investor and often for the businesses they refer to. Usually they make things worse, but the long term trend of the technology helps everything go to higher levels of performance and efficiency, at least...
Want to check out my collection of posts?
It's a good way to pick what interests you.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
True to the core. Focusing on tech which has long-term effects is the best. The short-term mindset doesn't really bring much success in Crypto. And I believe these bad days we are currently seeing with hive will pass soon. Now's just the time to buy up more hive, like you said.
Thanks for sharing these interesting thoughts. Have a great day.
They will pass... We will see how soon. Summer just started...
Well you're right. Selling doesn't really mean disloyalty. I do feel that the real loyalty whatever it entails is what eventually rewards people after the type of flash flood and flash crash that we've seen lately
I agree with this. There is a different kind of loyalty: the one that keeps people together for an idea, a brand or passed glory that is difficult to repeat. In this case, success is a bonus for such people. They are called supporters for a reason. And makes a lot of sense in sports with the favorite team, but not only.
Yeah, at the end there's this expectation for loyalty. It's a thing out there.
Great post. Definitely a read for panicked investors... After seven years in crypto, I can say I've been through worse than this... And we are in a bull market after all. No matter how much the market dips short term, in a few months to a year from now everything will be much higher. Some don't actually appreciate enough the level of volatility we have in crypto and the opportunities this market offers.
Panic is never a good sign when making financial transactions. Exuberance is not one either. But none of us are robots, and emotions play a role. Interestingly, trading bots learned to take advantage of human emotions, from what I heard.
For mass adoption, high volatility doesn't look good because people don't know or care to learn how to not become overexposed to a position to risk going broke if things go the other way than they anticipated. But there are opportunities in volatility, for sure. The question is, how many truly buy when there's blood on the streets?
Only smart people can make money from this bear market. I love those moves you took regarding the BTC you bought and all
There is no need to panic
A pump will happen soon
Smart people can lose money too. It's more important to have the emotional maturity to navigate these times without making all the wrong moves or to be able to pull the trigger when it seems the right time (to not go into an "analysis paralysis").
This post has been manually curated by @bhattg from Indiaunited community. Join us on our Discord Server.
Do you know that you can earn a passive income by delegating your Leo power to @india-leo account? We share 100 % of the curation rewards with the delegators.
100% of the rewards from this comment goes to the curator for their manual curation efforts. Please encourage the curator @bhattg by upvoting this comment and support the community by voting the posts made by @indiaunited.
It's so true bro, focusing on long-term trends driven by technology is the way to make it happen. Short-term fluctuations can be very scary for me Even with my strong determination, but staying grounded and seizing opportunities during this volatility and dipping is necessary. Thanks for sharing your insights big bro
They can be scary especially the first time... Once you learn about them and understand the cycle pretty well, it's easier to cope with such moments if you see the bigger picture. Then, if you look at the tech trend you also have another (more solid) anchor besides the price cycles.
I'm pretty much mostly all in on Hive at this point. I think the only move right now is to just buy during this fire sale. There is almost zero point to sell when it is low.
Never underestimate how deep a dip can go! But if you look longer than short term, these is definitely a price range where it's worth buying.
Hive price going down is going to happen. I heard that Upbit might be delisting Hive and they are one of the people selling Hive. Either way, you can't change the fact that you changed it into BTC but you can always get HBD next time. If anything, you could also change that BTC into HBD if you want.
Have you actually seen something to that effect? I remember their holdings going down at some point in the past too. It might be just another restructuring of holdings. But having so many HIVE trapped on Upbit was never a good idea anyway...
I still won compared to HIVE because BTC didn't experience the same volalility. No, I won't swap BTC to HBD. If anything I will swap it back to HIVE little by little.
Interesting. I think such moments are great times to zoom out and look into longer term trends and how they're progressing. Short terms movements can be hard to capitalize on, especially when one is not fully prepared. I'm hoping we have a steady and sustainable recovery from here onwards :)
That is true. It isn't easy to capitalize on short term trends and it can blow off in your face more often than people care to admit.